Preview: Auburn at Arkansas

Auburn’s last-minute, come-from-behind win at South Carolina told us a little bit about the Tigers, but it should have told us more. True, we did learn that the mythical “Auburn defense” does, in fact, exist, and that, whether at home or on the road, in a shootout or defensive struggle, Auburn’s players are going to be better than their opponents in the fourth quarter when the game is close. As good as the defense was against the Gamecocks, Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia helped out with bad interceptions and overthrows to open receivers. Had South Carolina been playing with a competent quarterback, who knows what would have happened? And the once-infallible Auburn offense continued to struggle, putting up its lowest point total for a game since scoring 10 at LSU on Oct. 24, 2009. If the defense had not played one of its best games of the Gene Chizik Era, the offense would not have been able to win in Columbia.

So now, Auburn heads to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas. For the second week in a row, the Tigers face a top-10 team, and for the second week in a row, almost no one expects Auburn to win the game. While the South Carolina win was impressive, and wins over LSU or Alabama would be monumental, Auburn defeating Arkansas could be the biggest surprise of the season. Arkansas’ full-throttle passing game is the worst kind of matchup for Auburn’s defense, and Auburn’s offense isn’t playing at a level right now to keep up in a shootout.

Playing at night in a hostile environment shouldn’t affect the young — after five games, we can no longer call them inexperienced — Tigers, that much we know. But whether the offense can perform well or if last week’s defensive performance was a fluke is still a mystery. Either way, for Auburn to beat Arkansas, the Tigers will have to play well on both sides of the ball. If either the offense or the defense struggles, winning in Fayetteville will be nearly impossible. Saturday marks the end of the first half of the season. It’s fitting that we’ll find out that night what to expect from Auburn in the second half.

WHEN AUBURN IS ON OFFENSE

To defeat Arkansas, Gus Malzahn must put together the right gameplan and the offense must execute. If either of those things doesn’t happen, the Tigers will not beat the Razorbacks. No matter how well Auburn’s defense plays, Arkansas is going to score a fair amount points. It’s up to Malzahn and the offense to come up with one more score than the Razorbacks. That’s a pretty obvious statement, but the point is that Auburn’s defense isn’t going to be able to shut down the Hogs like it did South Carolina. Auburn’s offense needs to put plenty of points on the scoreboard.

The offensive gameplan against Arkansas should be very similar to the plan implemented against South Carolina. Mike Dyer should receive plenty of carries to wear out the Razorbacks’ defense and keep Tyler Wilson and Arkansas’ plethora of stud wide receivers off the field. Arkansas is giving up 168 yards on the ground, which ranks ninth in the SEC, and is coming off a game in which it allowed Texas A&M to pile up 381 rushing yards. Allowing Dyer carry the ball inside is the key to keeping the ball. As Dyer picks up his yards, Onterio McCalebb should be able to break a few big plays as the change of pace back, and Barrett Trotter should be able to find some open receivers.

Like Auburn did against Lattimore and Carolina, Arkansas main focus is going to be selling out to stop Dyer. It’ll be up to Trotter to keep the Hogs honest by completing short passes and the occasional deep ball when it’s available. One of the reasons Trotter’s completion percentage has suffered in the last few games is that he has been throwing down the field much more than in the first couple games of the season. Malzahn should help Trotter by calling a decent amount of receiver and running back screens. Getting Trotter some easy completions will not only keep the Arkansas D off balance, but it will allow Trotter to get into a rhythm and build confidence. That will allow him to make better throws on deeper passes.

With Emory Blake doubtful to play and Travon Reed definitely out, Auburn will be playing without its top two receivers. It’ll be up to the likes of Travante Stallworth, Quan Bray, DeAngelo Benton, Quindarius Carr, Jaylon Denson and Jay Wisner to get open and make catches. If they can’t do that, Auburn will become too one-dimensional, and Dyer and McCalebb will have a tough time moving the ball.

WHEN AUBURN IS ON DEFENSE

This is easily the Tiger D’s toughest challenge of the season. Auburn did a nice job of shutting down Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery last week, but under Ted Roof, the Tigers have always had their most success against pro-style, run-first offenses. Arkansas is going to spread it out, and Wilson, an NFL-quality quarterback, will be throwing to four NFL-quality receivers. Frankly, it’s a nightmare of a matchup for Auburn. Fortunately for the Tigers, the secondary is beginning to play its best football.

Arkansas really doesn’t care about running the ball. The Razorbacks rank ninth in the SEC with 120 yards per game, and that lack of rushing attack is what will cost Arkansas games. When Knile Davis emerged as a playmaker last season, the Hog offense was simply unstoppable. Ronnie Wingo is a fine running back, but he’s no Davis. When Arkansas lost its No. 1 running back to a season-ending injury in fall camp, it was a real blow to the pass-happy offense. If Davis was on the field to balance Arkansas’ O, Auburn’s defense wouldn’t stand a chance.

Auburn has managed to intercept five passes in the past two games, and forcing turnovers will be imperative against Arkansas. The Razorback receivers do most of their damage after catching the ball, the Auburn secondary is going to have to do its best to not let Jarius Wright and co. to not make catches in the first place. Roof needs to call plenty of man coverage to disrupt routes and the Auburn secondary needs to stay with Arkansas receivers and break up passes. Roof will need to change it up every now and then with some of his Tampa 2 zone coverage to try to confuse Wilson, but he’s going to have to rely on his defensive backs to make plays in man coverage. Arkansas will inevitably make some big plays, but backing off and playing zone all afternoon will kill the Tigers.

The best way Auburn can disrupt Arkansas’ passing game is by getting after Wilson. The Razorbacks offensive line has been pretty porous, allowing 12 sacks and 33 tackles for loss. Defensive end Cory Lemonier has been taking his game to another level lately, and Nosa Eguae and LaDarius Owens have been doing a nice job of getting into the backfield, as well. The Auburn defensive ends should be able to abuse the Hog offensive line and get consistent pressure on Wilson. Arkansas hasn’t been great on third downs this year, converting at 37 percent against BCS teams, so if Auburn can force Wilson and the Razorbacks into third-and-longs, the defensive ends will have a chance to pin their ears back and cause some big plays. Anytime Auburn can force a punt or, even better, a turnover, it will be a major win for the Tigers.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Steven Clark came through with a huge game punting against South Carolina, and he’ll need to do the same against Arkansas. The Razorbacks rank third in the SEC with 13 yards per punt return, and Joe Adams has taken two punts back for touchdowns. Clark punted seven times last week and didn’t allow a single return. He must have similar success this week. Arkansas is giving up 14 yards per return and a conference-worst 37 punt return yards per game. Bray showed some skill in his debut as a returner last week and could have a few opportunities this week. Anytime he can put Auburn’s offense in good field position will be appreciated. And if Bray was to take one to the house, that would really give the Tigers a boost.

At this point, there’s really no reason to analyze Arkansas’ kickoff return game. Cody Parkey leads the SEC with 18 touchbacks. Parkey is kicking the ball through the end zone or forcing his opponents to take a knee on an astounding 60 percent of all kickoffs. The next-best percentage in the conference belongs to Georgia’s Blair Walsh, who forces a touchback 43 percent of the time. On the few times Parkey doesn’t record a touchback, the Auburn coverage team is allowing opponents 20 yards per return. It would appear that, after Auburn scores, Arkansas is going to be starting near its own 20 all night.

Arkansas kicker Zach Hocker is actually tied with Walsh for second in the SEC with 13 touchbacks. The big advantage for Auburn is that Bray and Tre Mason are two of the best return men in the SEC. Teams have been giving up on kicking it deep and just allowing an Auburn up-man to make a fair catch. If Arkansas elects to go that route, the Tiger offense will gladly accept starting field position around its 30. If Hocker is feeling ballsy and elects to kick to Bray and Mason, he runs a serious risk of allowing a big return, maybe even a touchdown. Either way, Auburn will be in good shape.

If the game comes down to a field goal, it’s hard to tell if either team has an advantage. Parkey is 7 of 8 on the year, Hocker has connected on 5 of 6 attempts and both kickers have missed an extra point. Parkey and Hocker seem to be capable of making a pressure-packed kick if the situation calls for it.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

For Arkansas, this game is an absolute must win. Bobby Petrino’s team came into the 2011 season with legitimate SEC and national championship hopes, and those goals are still attainable. To have any chance at accomplishing those goals, the Razorbacks will have to find a way to beat Auburn at home. Should Arkansas lose, the Razorbacks will be two games behind Auburn and likely Alabama and LSU in the conference standings and would lose out on a tiebreaker against the Tigers and Tide. As it stands, Arkansas needs help to reach the SEC title game. A loss to Auburn would all but end the Hogs’ title hopes.

For the second consecutive week, Auburn enters a road conference game with something to prove. Most people didn’t think Auburn would beat South Carolina, and most don’t think the Tigers will beat Arkansas. A win on Saturday night would move Auburn to 5-1 overall and 3-0 in SEC play at the halfway point of the season and prove to the nation that, even in a rebuilding year, Chizik’s team is going to be a competitor in the toughest division in college football.

For Dyer and wildcat/future starting quarterback Kiehl Frazier, there are added stakes. Both players are Arkansas natives and have a chance to show off in front of friends and family. The Razorbacks lost out to Auburn for both players, and Dyer and Frazier would love to show Arkansas what it is missing.

WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN?

This Auburn team is immensely talented, but the knock on the 2011 Tigers was that they were going to be too young and inexperienced to be a player in the SEC West race. Well, Auburn is still young, but after big wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina, the Tigers have gained a wealth of experience and, more importantly, confidence. That confidence will pay dividends in an outstanding performance against the Razorbacks.

Led by Dyer, the Auburn offense will be able to churn out rushing yards and move the ball down the field, draining clock and keeping Wilson and the Arkansas offense off the field. Trotter will bounce back from a tough afternoon against Carolina to have a nice game and make enough big throws to keep the chains moving and put points on the board. Wilson and the Hog receivers will put up big numbers, but they won’t be big enough. The Auburn defensive line will get enough pressure, and the Auburn secondary will make enough plays to force a couple of picks and keep Arkansas from scoring at will. Auburn’s offense will limit mistake, capitalize on its opportunities and do just enough to outscore the Razorbacks. Defying the odds, the Tigers will pick up another stunning road win. Auburn 38, Arkansas 35.