Preview: Florida at Auburn

Oct. 19, 2002. That’s the date of the last win by Florida against Auburn. Ron Zook was the Gators’ head coach, and Rex Grossman led his team to a 30-23 overtime victory over Tommy Tuberville’s Tigers, who had Daniel Cobb and Jason Campbell splitting time at quarterback. Yes, that was a long time ago. And even though the two teams have met just twice since then, those two Auburn wins are worth noting. Urban Meyer never beat Auburn. Tim Tebow never beat Auburn. The lone blemish on Florida’s national title record in 2006 was a loss at Jordan-Hare Stadium. After Steve Spurrier terrorized Auburn in the ’90s, if feels good to be able to make those statements.

It’s also been a pretty long time since the last time these two even played a game. When Auburn defeated Florida 20-17 on Sept. 29, 2007, in the Swamp, Wes Byrum kicked the game-winning field goal — twice — as a freshman, current Gator head coach Will Muschamp was Auburn’s defensive coordinator, Tommy Tuberville was still Auburn’s coach and Brandon Cox was the Tigers’ starting quarterback. Since that game, both teams have won a national title and Heisman Trophy, both teams have gone through coaching changes and Auburn went through a disastrous 5-7 2008 season. (Of course, that ’08 season eventually led to the hiring of Gene Chizik  as head coach, who eventually led Auburn to its long-awaited title. So, maybe 2008 wasn’t so disastrous, after all.)

So, what about this year’s matchup between the orange-and-blue-clad rivals? Both teams are licking their wounds a bit. Florida is coming off consecutive drubbings at the hands of Alabama and LSU, two games in which the Gators were outscored 79-21. Florida’s top two quarterbacks were injured against Alabama, and third-stringer Jacoby Brissett, a true freshman, will get the start against the Tigers. Auburn returns home after a 38-14 loss at Arkansas that brought up plenty of questions. Quarterback play has been a major issue lately for the Tigers, and with top receivers Emory Blake and Travon Reed injured, the passing game has completely fallen apart.

There’s a sense of desperation in both teams’ camps as the loser of Florida-Auburn could see its season head into a downward spiral. It’s hard to tell which team will have the advantage on the field. One thing is for certain — with plenty on the line, a night game between old conference foes should provide an electric environment at Jordan-Hare on Saturday.

WHEN AUBURN IS ON OFFENSE

The ground game will be what makes the offense go, but don’t be surprised if Gus Malzahn opens up the playbook a little bit. Florida’s defense is giving up 147 rushing yards per game against BCS opponents, and Auburn will employ Mike Dyer, Onterio McCalebb and Kiehl Frazier to wear down the Gator defense and keep Auburn’s defense off the field. Frazier played 17 snaps against Arkansas — 13 of those were rushes — and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the freshman QB receive that much or more playing time against the Gators. Frazier’s zone reads did a nice job of keeping the Razorbacks’ front seven off balance, but when it was clear that Auburn couldn’t throw the ball, Arkansas focused solely on the run game and stopped or contained every aspect of it. That’s why Malzahn will need to open it up this week.

Barrett Trotter had an awful day throwing against Arkansas, but it wasn’t totally his fault. His receivers had some terrible drops, and constantly subbing in and out with Frazier didn’t allow him to get into a rhythm. Trotter can’t do anything about his receivers catching the ball, and Frazier is too talented to not receive playing time, so he’s going to have to step up and make some plays. Malzahn can help him by calling some easy passes: underneath routes, bubble screens, running back screens. If Trotter can build some confidence early, he’ll be able to make bigger throws when necessary later in the game. Everyone saw what he is capable of during the first two and a half games of the year. Trotter was making nice throws all over the field. He just needs to forget about the lousy games he’s had recently.

Of course, there are two easy things Trotter could do to improve his performance: Get rid of the ball without scrambling around for five or more seconds, and if the deeper routes are covered, dump the ball off to the safety valve. Not doing those things has been the biggest problem with Trotter’s play this year. It’s admirable that he’s always looking to make something happen and make a big play, but more times than not, taking what the defense will allow is the right decision.

WHEN AUBURN IS ON DEFENSE

Playing defense against this Florida team is going to be tricky. Yes, Alabama and LSU made it appear otherwise, but Florida runs (one of) the (many) type(s) of offense that gives the Tigers problems. And while the Gators will be starting a true freshman at quarterback, that just means that Ted Roof and his players don’t have very much film on Brissett to analyze. It is unlikely that Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis will leave the fate of the game completely in the hands of a freshman backup quarterback, so Auburn can expect to see plenty of Chris Rainey and Trey Burton running the wildcat, and even when those two line up in the slot or backfield, they should get plenty of carries. Another Gator back to watch out for, at least according to Alligator Army, is Mike Gillislee. Gillislee carried nine times for 56 yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry against LSU.

Despite being a pro-style offensive guy, Weis has shown that he isn’t afraid to spread it out when necessary. That will likely be his game plan against the Tigers. Rainey should receive plenty of carries, and Auburn can’t allow the speedster to break off big runs. Thanks in large part to tremendous speed, Rainey leads the SEC with 27 plays from scrimmage that have gone for 10 yards or more. If Auburn allows him to get into space, Rainey can turn a simple screen pass or off-tackle play into an 80-yards touchdown before the Tigers have a chance to blink. Last week, Arkansas receiver Joe Adams broke off a 92-yard touchdown run that pretty much put the game out of reach for Auburn. With the Tiger offense struggling and points at a premium, Auburn’s defense can’t allow Florida any easy scores.

So, how can Auburn stop the Florida offense? If Roof is smart, he’ll use a very similar gameplan to the one employed against South Carolina. In case it hasn’t already been mentioned, Florida is starting a true freshman who is normally third on the depth chart at quarterback, and the Gators don’t exactly have an imposing receiving corps. Roof needs to ditch the zone and call man-to-man coverage for most of the game. Allowing the front seven to be aggressive against the run is the only way to stop an offense like Florida’s. If Auburn’s defenders sit back and wait for the play to come to them, the Gators will be able to pick up four to five yards per play consistently. Auburn needs to disrupt Florida on first and second down and force Brissett into third-and-long passing situations. That’s when defensive ends Cory Lemonier, Nosa Eguae, and the rest of the Tiger linemen can get after the quarterback and put the freshman under duress. If Auburn’s D-line can force some hurried throws from Brissett, there’s a good chance he’ll throw an interception or two.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Again, Auburn needs to look to the South Carolina game for inspiration. Even though the Tiger offense had trouble sustaining drives, punter Steven Clark consistently pinned the Gamecocks deep in their own territory. With South Carolina’s offense struggling as well, Auburn won the field-position battle over the course of the entire game, and it gave Trotter a short field to work with on the Tigers’ game-winning drive. This game feels like it could be another low-scoring, defensive struggle, so Clark’s ability to force the Gators to begin drives inside their 20 could be a huge factor in determining the winner.

If the game comes down to a field goal, like a few Auburn-Florida games in the past have, both teams seem to be equipped with a capable kicker. Auburn’s Cody Parkey hasn’t been called into action much lately but has hit seven of eight attempts on the year. Parkey’s long is just 43 yards, but his booming kickoffs lead one to believe that he’s capable of connecting from much farther out. Florida’s Caleb Sturgis is more tested, having converted 13 of 14 on field goal attempts this season, with a long of 51. If Sturgis has a chance to win the game, it’s unlikely that he’ll waste the opportunity.

Where Auburn might have an advantage is on kickoff returns. Sturgis handles the kickoff duties for the Gators and has only sent eight of 39 kicks for touchbacks, compared to 20 of 33 for Parkey. If Sturgis can’t put the ball through the end zone, Tre Mason and Quan Bray will have a chance to make plays against a Gator coverage team that ranks 11th in the SEC. If the game is low-scoring, there might not be enough opportunities to make an advantage in the kickoff return game matter. Then again, if Mason or Bray can break off just one big return, that might be the difference in the game.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

First and foremost, the winner of this game will have a good chance at a strong second half to the season, and the loser faces the prospect of its season coming off the rails. Florida is still very much alive in the SEC East race. At 2-2 in conference play and with games remaining against South Carolina and Georgia, a Florida win on Saturday night would allow the Gators to control their destiny. A loss would all but end their chances at getting to Atlanta.

Auburn is looking to prove some preseason doubters wrong. Yes, at 2-1 in SEC play, the Tigers are still very much alive for the Western Division title. But with games remaining against LSU and Alabama, only the most optimistic Auburn fan would believe that an SEC West crown is an attainable goal in a rebuilding year such as this. However, if Auburn can defeat Florida, the Tigers have an excellent opportunity to finish the regular season with an 8-4 record. A win in a bowl game would give Auburn nine wins in 2011, something many thought would be impossible with so many losses on both sides of the ball and a brutal schedule. Looking ahead to next season, Auburn should be right in the thick of the SEC title race. If the Tigers put together eight or nine wins in a season like this, there’s no reason to doubt that Auburn can win the SEC in 2012.

WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN?

It’s going to be a tense, tightly-contested contest. Florida’s offense and defense head into the game ranking better than Auburn’s, but playing with a freshman quarterback in a very hostile environment could nullify any advantage the Gators have. Malzahn has made necessary adjustments in his offense so far this year, and he’ll continue to do that on Saturday. Trotter will be given an opportunity to make some plays in the passing game, but the ground game will be what drives Auburn’s offense. While McCalebb won’t have an easy time running laterally against Florida’s fast defense, Dyer and Frazier will be able to punish the Gators with inside runs. Trotter won’t be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but he won’t play as poorly as he has during the past few weeks. He’ll make enough good throws to keep drives alive and keep the Gator defense respecting the pass. Rainey will pick up decent yardage, but with no real Florida passing game to fear, Auburn will sell out to stop the run and find itself pretty successful. Brissett will make a couple of big plays throwing the ball against Auburn’s man coverage, but he’ll also throw a couple of interceptions that will kill Florida’s chances. The game will definitely remind Auburn fans of the win over South Carolina, and the Tigers will do just enough on both sides of the ball to come out victorious. Auburn 23, Florida 21.