Preview: Auburn at LSU

The Earthquake Game. The Phantom Whistle. The Night the Barn Burned. The Extra Extra Point. John Vaughn’s Nightmare. The Non-Pass Interference.

For whatever reason, the Auburn-LSU rivalry has been defined by plenty of quirky moments on and off the field over the years. Normally, the event that eventually inspires a nickname occurs on game day. Depending on how things play out on Saturday, we might already have a nickname for this year’s edition of Auburn vs. LSU.

The Suspension Game.

Les Miles hasn’t exactly been forthcoming with information, but unless sources have been lying to reporters since Wednesday, cornerbacks Tyrann Mathieu and Tharold Simon and running back Spencer Ware will miss Saturday’s game due to failed drug tests. Ware is LSU’s starting running back, and Mathieu is one of the best defensive players in the country. Even without those two, LSU looks to be significantly better than Auburn, but you can’t expect a team to lose its best offensive and defensive players and not miss a beat. How Mathieu’s and Ware’s replacements handle themselves on Saturday will play a big role in determining the winner of this game.

LSU isn’t the only team with big personnel news this week. Auburn quarterback Clint Moseley, who was 4 of 7 for 90 yards in relief of Barrett Trotter against Florida, will make his first career start in Baton Rouge. Making his first start in the hostile environment of Tiger Stadium will definitely show the Auburn Family what the Leroy Legend is made of, and he’s been saying all the right things this week. Moseley has sounded confident in post-practice interviews, and Gene Chizik and Gus Malzahn seem to have confidence in Moseley, calling him a “gunslinger.” Of course, it’s a lot easier for Moseley and his coaches to express confidence from the practice field in Auburn than in Death Valley with 90,000 fans screaming in their ears. Who knows if they’ll be able to walk the walk after talking the talk.

LSU was a 23-point favorite before Vegas pulled the line due to reports of the Bengal Tiger suspensions. One New Orleans casino dropped the line to 21.5, so it would appear the locals still have plenty of faith in their team. If Auburn can’t take advantage of LSU’s missing pieces, beating that 21.5-point spread will be a tough task.

WHEN AUBURN IS ON OFFENSE

It’s all going to come down to Malzahn and Moseley. Auburn will have to run the ball and pick up some yards on the ground, but relying on the style of play that was used against Florida won’t lead to success against LSU. The Bengal Tigers’ front seven is too good and too fast to get beaten by a one-dimensional, run-based offense. LSU gives up just 2.49 yards per carry, 75.14 yards per game and has surrendered four rushing touchdowns. If Moseley only throws 15 passes on Saturday, Auburn will be lucky to score more than six points. Malzahn must call enough passes and the right types of passes, and Moseley must execute at a high percentage to pull the upset.

Moseley has to be able to throw downfield against LSU. The Bengal Tigers don’t give up many big plays, but the ones they do give up usually come through the air. LSU has allowed 50 passes of 10 yards or more this season, compared to 20 rushes that have covered at least 10 yards. It will be tough — even without the Honey Badger and Simon, LSU’s Maurice Claiborne-led secondary is great — but if Moseley can hit some deeper crossing routes and complete a few passes to streaking receivers, Mike Dyer, Onterio McCalebb, Kiehl Frazier and Tre Mason might be able to find enough running room to sustain long drives.

WHEN AUBURN IS ON DEFENSE

It’s all about stopping the run for Ted Roof’s boys.

Jarrett Lee has taken the surprise opportunity to start at quarterback for LSU and run with it. Lee has completed 61 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns and just one interception. If you went into a coma after his miserable 2008 season — 14 TDs, 16 INTs — and woke up today, you’d never believe Lee’s 2011 numbers. Everyone keeps waiting on him to screw it up, but so far, Lee hasn’t shown any signs of doing that. So. Even after all that Jarrett Lee praise, we’re going to recommend loading up the front seven and focus mainly on stopping the run.

Auburn’s secondary has really improved over the past few weeks, and Roof has to trust his defensive backs to survive playing man coverage in Baton Rouge. LSU’s offensive line is so good that Michael Ford and Alfred Blue, Ware’s replacements at running back, will be able to pick up five yards per carry if Auburn’s linebackers are sitting back in zone coverage. Auburn needs to get aggressive and force the issue up front on first and second down and hope to put LSU into a number of third-and-long situations. At that point, Cory Lemonier and Nosa Eguae can try to get after Lee and force some mistakes. If Auburn’s DBs can hang with LSU’s good but not great receiving corps, the good Tigers should be able to stay in the game.

The biggest problem for Auburn is that if the Tigers have success against Lee, Jordan Jefferson could receive more playing time at quarterback for LSU. Jefferson has the ability to run the option and spread out Auburn’s defense, something that usually ends badly for Roof’s unit. Stopping Jefferson could end up being Auburn’s biggest challenge.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Should this game turn out to be a defensive struggle, it will be a real treat for punting enthusiasts. LSU’s Brad Wing, possibly the only punter ever penalized for taunting, and Auburn’s Steven Clark both average around 41 yards per kick, and LSU and Auburn rank 1 and 2 in the SEC in average return yards allowed. Auburn allows 3.86 yards per return, and LSU is giving opponents a measly 0.56 yards on average. In fact, the Bengal Tigers have given up a total of five punt return yards all season. Yes, you read that correctly. It’s unlikely we’ll see any big returns, and both punters will play a big role in the battle for field position. In a close game, that could be the deciding factor.

The two Tigers appear to be even in terms of place kickers. LSU’s Drew Alleman has made 9 of 11 field goal attempts this season with a long of 44, and Auburn’s Cody Parkey is 8 of 11 with a long of 43. Both kickers have missed an extra point. Parkey missed two field goals last week, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can bounce back. Auburn can’t afford to waste any opportunities for points this weekend.

As it does most weeks, Auburn has the advantage on kickoffs and kickoff returns. Parkey has 21 touchbacks, compared to just seven for Alleman. With Mason back in the lineup this week, Auburn should have a few chances at big returns. The Tigers will need Mason and Quan Bray to give the offense as short a field as possible against LSU’s D.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

LSU is just looking to keep rolling along to that Nov. 5 date with Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Even without the three suspended players, the purple-and-gold Tigers should be better than the orange-and-blue Tigers. Les Miles just wants to keep his team from getting distracted and get into next week’s bye week at 8-0. Then, he’ll be able to finally focus all of his team’s attention on ‘Bama.

Auburn is trying to pull the biggest upset of the season. If Chizik’s team can shock the world and win in Baton Rouge, the Tigers will be 4-1 in SEC play and all of a sudden find themselves as legitimate contenders for the SEC West title. Almost no one expected Auburn to be 6-2 after eight games, and Chizik’s team would love to keep proving all the experts wrong.

Auburn also has an added bit of motivation this week. While the players and certainly coaches wouldn’t admit it, it has to irk them to turn on the ESPN everyday and see hype of the upcoming de facto national championship between two of their biggest rivals. You have to believe they would love nothing more than to give LSU a loss just to spoil everyone’s good time.

WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN?

LSU might be a three-touchdown favorite, but the game is going to be much closer than that. Auburn’s defense will keep LSU’s offense in check as Lemonier will cause enough trouble in the backfield to keep Lee from moving the ball effectively. Jefferson will receive significant second-half snaps and do enough to get LSU’s offense moving. Moseley will have his struggles in a tough environment, but he will play fairly well and, aided by the return of Emory Blake, end up with a couple of touchdown passes. McCalebb will have a hard time rushing to the outside, but Dyer and Frazier will pick up enough yards between the tackles to keep a few scoring drives alive. Overall, Auburn will play its best game in weeks, but it won’t be enough to win. LSU isn’t going to turn the ball over, and Moseley will throw a couple of interceptions. That, plus a few key penalties to kill offensive momentum will keep Auburn from pulling the upset. LSU 27, Auburn 17.