Time to Cage the KiehlKat?

One of the developing hallmarks of the 2011 Auburn offense is the constant rotation of quarterbacks, subbing in and out Kiehl Frazier on what seems like every other play. Frazier is a true freshman that came to Auburn with plenty of hype and appears to be the quarterback of the future. It’s understandable that Gus Malzahn wants to get his young QB valuable in-game experience, and Frazier’s level of raw talent seems to warrant playing time. Frazier has come up big on third down plays for Auburn in the Tigers last four games, and he occasionally breaks off a big run. But is Frazier’s contribution to the offense worth the disruption it causes for the “throwing quarterback” throughout the game? We’re not so sure about that.

Since he started receiving significant snaps against South Carolina, Frazier has put up more than respectable rushing numbers. Against Carolina, Arkansas, Florida and LSU, Frazier has averaged 5.3, 4.2, 5.1 and 3.4 yards per carry. Over the course of that four-game stretch, he’s averaging 4.5 yards per — not bad at all. His passing has been another story. In the last four games, Frazier is 5 of 9 for 34 yards and two interceptions, and he hasn’t shown the confidence and/or ability to throw downfield. Because of that, opposing defenses have been able to key in on Frazier running the zone read and have a better chance at stopping the run. But if Frazier is still averaging 4.5 yards per carry, it doesn’t matter, right? Well, maybe, maybe not.

While Frazier’s numbers against the Gamecocks, Razorbacks, Gators and Tigers are solid, the change significantly when you remove his long run in each game. Taking away his long — 22 against S.C., nine against Arkansas, 18 against Florida, 13 against LSU — he’s averaging 3.3, 3.8, 3.3 and 2.3 yards per carry in each of his last four games. Add it all up, and Frazier is averaging 3.2 yards per carry since the beginning of the Carolina game. That’s not the kind of production that is worth taking Clint Moseley or Barrett Trotter out of a rhythm. When Trotter was struggling, it was hard for him to get going while subbing in and out for Frazier. If Moseley begins to struggle you would have to think he would have the same problem. Frazier’s yardage has been valuable, but it’s hard to imagine that Auburn’s stable of talented running backs — Mike Dyer, Onterio McCalebb and Tre Mason — couldn’t equal that production with the added carries if Frazier loses snaps.

The time that Frazier’s value shoots up is on third down, especially third and short. Auburn has struggled converting third downs all year, ranking eighth in the SEC at 36 percent. Converting third downs was one of Auburn’s strengths in 2010, and part of that was because Cam Newton was almost guaranteed to pick up a first down when the Tigers needed a few yards on third down. Frazier brings that type of element in 2011. He’s carried the ball nine times for 52 yards, a 5.8 average, and six first downs in the last month. On third and three yards or fewer, Frazier has carried five times for 32 yards and four first downs, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. Those numbers are much better than Auburn’s running backs in the same situations. On all third downs this season, Tiger backs have carried the ball 21 times for 103 yards — a 4.9 average — and seven first downs. On third and short, Dyer, McCalebb and Mason have combined for 12 carries, 40 yards — a 3.3 average — and six first downs. Frazier’s ability to slip through linemen and linebackers and fall forward through tackles has made him the most reliable offensive player when Auburn faces third down. Considering the Tigers’ third-down struggles this year, that’s worth quite a bit.

So, the answer seems pretty simple. Malzahn should limit Frazier’s snaps on first and second down and allow him to run the zone read on third and short-to-medium. Yes, opposing defenses will know Auburn plans to run any time Frazier enters the game on third down, but that’s pretty much the case already. Averaging 3.2 yards per carry, while not ideal over the course of a game, is perfectly serviceable on third and short. Any longer runs will just be gravy.

This isn’t meant to be a shot at Frazier. He’s a very talented, young player and appears to be the future leader of the Auburn offense. But right now, he would be best used in limited, specific situations. It’s pretty unlikely that Malzahn will employ that strategy, but we’re betting the offense would improve if he did.

UPDATE: Apparently, Malzahn recognizes that the constant quarterback shuffling is disrupting the Tigers’ rhythm. Maybe we will see some changes in the gameplan, after all.