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Auburn Football: 2015 Tigers Better on Defense Than Offense According to ESPN FPI

By Nicholas Ian Allen

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Looking ahead to the 2015 Auburn football season, it’s easy to be optimistic about the Tigers defense because of the hiring of new coordinator Will Muschamp. But is it possible that Auburn will actually have a better defense than offense in 2015?

According to the pre-season ESPN Football Power Index, they already do.

If you’re unfamiliar with ESPN’s Football Power Index, it’s a data-driven ranking system that aims to project overall team strength.

The formula was rolled out in 2014, and the top three teams in last year’s pre-season rankings were Florida State, Alabama and Ohio State, which all made the College Football Playoff. Though that doesn’t mean FPI is foolproof, it’s at least off to a strong start.

Now, the system is in use for the first time in the off-season, which brings us to the interesting note that the Auburn Tigers ranked 18th overall at present, have a higher rated defense (15th) than offense (23rd).

How can that be? The Tigers have college football’s best offensive play-caller and many quality players returning on offense including arguably the SEC’s best receiver in D’haquille Williams. On the other hand, the defense was historically bad in 2014, having finished 13th in the SEC in pass defense and has allowed 31 points or more to seven straight FBS opponents.

A closer look at the components factored into the FPI’s pre-season ratings helps to tell the story:

  • Prior year’s performances using ESPN’s efficiency ratings
  • Number of returning starters
  • Recruiting, combining a four-year average from ESPN, Scout, Rivals and Phil Steele
  • Coaching tenure

While Auburn ranked a mediocre 43rd nationally in defense in last year’s efficiency ratings, the Tigers are expected to return eight starters on defense in 2015 compared to only four on offense.

Among 2014’s top offensive performers that won’t be back next season, Auburn must replace Nick Marshall at quarterback – who accounted for 2,532 passing yards and 798 rushing yards in 2014 – and 1,639 combined receiving yards from six graduating seniors and early NFL Draft entrant Sammie Coates.

Sep 21, 2013; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Auburn Tigers defensive tackle Montravius Adams (1) against the LSU Tigers during the second half of a game at Tiger Stadium. LSU defeated Auburn 35-21. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Furthermore, the Tigers must account for the loss of Cameron Artis-Payne, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,608 rushing yards, as well as the team’s third leading rusher Corey Grant.

Auburn football fans are confident that head coach Gus Malzahn has replacements lined up, especially quarterback Jeremy Johnson and incoming running backs Jovon Robinson and Kerryon Johnson as well as 2014 blue-chipper Roc Thomas, but that’s a lot of lost production to overcome.

On defense, Auburn returns eight of their top 11 tacklers from last season including leader Johnathan Ford as well as the team’s top three in sacks in Kris Frost, DaVonte Lambert and Montravious Adams.

Plus, the unit is expected to return the top four in tackles for a loss when adding Casanova McKinzy‘s team-leading 11 TFLs from last season. Oh, and don’t forget second team All-SEC cornerback Jonathan Jones, who had a team-high six interceptions in 2014.

And three of the team’s most talented players – Carl Lawson, Tray Matthews and five-star recruit Byron Cowart – didn’t play a snap for the Tigers last season due to injury, transfer and still being in high school, respectively.

Three of the team’s most talented players – Carl Lawson, Tray Matthews and five-star recruit Byron Cowart – didn’t play a snap for the Tigers last season…

Of course, those three players factor into the mix in terms of recruiting, which aids in boosting the defense’s standing in the Football Power Index.

Overall, the Tigers have pulled in the nation’s 9th best class on average each of the past five years according to 247Sports Composite class rankings, which similar to ESPN’s pre-season FPI formula, takes several recruiting sites into account.

Simply put, the Tigers are just as talented and more experienced on defense than they are on offense.

As a result, by at least one outlet’s projections, Auburn has a better defense than offense heading into the 2015 season.

Next: 2015 Auburn Recruiting Class Player Profiles

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