2015 College Football Preview and Predictions

Oct 4, 2014; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers receiver D

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE

SEC West:

1. Auburn Tigers (11-1, 7-1) – Gus Malzahn’s first two seasons at Auburn have been defined by the month of November. In 2013, Auburn got stronger in the final month, blowing out Tennessee and Arkansas on the road before famously stunning Georgia and Alabama. Last year, the defense imploded and the offense became inconsistent, leading to losses to Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama (allowed 43.3 points in those games). The Tigers couldn’t overcome an insanely tough road schedule (#20 Kansas State, #3 Mississippi State, #4 Ole Miss, #15 Georgia and #1 Alabama) and stumbled to an 8-5 record. However, all signs are pointing toward a return to title contention for Auburn. Jeremy Johnson steps in at quarterback and could shatter school passing records galore with a deep WR corp led by Duke Williams (assuming his season isn’t drastically affected by off-field issues). The offense has talent everywhere. Will Muschamp takes over a defense that, as bad as they played last year, has talent all over the field (Carl Lawson, Montravious Adams, Cassanova McKinzy, Kris Frost and Jonathan Jones are all considered among the best NFL prospects at their positions). The schedule, while still hard, is much more favorable than a year ago, as Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama visit the Plains. If Auburn’s defense takes a step forward, this is the best team in the SEC West.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2, 6-2) – Most schools would be worried if they returned only 3 offensive players with real experience and face the toughest schedule in America. However, Alabama isn’t most schools. The three returning starters on offense are All-American-caliber offensive linemen Ryan Kelly and Cam Robinson and stud running back/tank Derrick Henry. Also, 7 starters return from a defense that gave up 328 yards per game in 2014 (the worst numbers for a Saban defense since 2007). A’shawn Robinson might be the best defensive tackle in the country, and the secondary should improve after a poor finish to last season (318.5 passing yards allowed in their last 4 games against FBS foes). No matter the schedule or lack of experienced offensive talent, it simply boils down to the fact that this is Alabama, the best program in America for most of the last decade. They’ve got talent everywhere. If David Cornwell wins the QB job and is as good as advertised, the Tide has the tools to overcome a difficult schedule and land in the playoffs again. However, I see the schedule being too much to overcome for a mostly inexperienced offense. The Crimson Tide, for the 2nd time in 3 years, comes up short in a winner-takes-West showdown on the Plains.

3. LSU Tigers (9-3, 5-3) – After 4 consecutive double-digit win seasons, LSU struggled last season, going 8-5 and often struggling on offense. The Tigers fielded a young offense (just 5 returning starters) and a defense that lost some key players to the NFL. Les Miles’ squad was wildly inconsistent, losing 41-7 at Auburn and 17-0 at Arkansas but beating Ole Miss 10-7 and taking Alabama to overtime. This season, LSU is just a quarterback away from national title contention. RB Leonard Fournette and WRs Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre are among the best skill players in the SEC. The defense returns 6 starters from last year, and LSU, as always, has one of the most talented rosters in college football. The nonconference schedule is easy (a road game at Syracuse will be over by the 3rd quarter), and LSU hosts Auburn, Florida, Arkansas and Texas A&M. I still see too much uncertainty at the quarterback position to bump LSU higher than this in the best division in the country, but if quarterback play does improve, the College Football Playoff committee could be callin’ Baton Rouge.

4. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3, 5-3) – It says a lot about the strength of this division that a team this good is only 4th in the standings. Texas A&M enters the season as the most overlooked team in the entire SEC. Yes, they went 8-5 last year, but they had only 11 returning starters and a difficult schedule. It was always going to be a rebuilding year. The lows were low (that 59-0 beatdown in Tuscaloosa), but the highs were high (leading #3 Auburn 35-17 at Jordan-Hare at halftime in route to a thrilling upset win). Kyle Allen has experience at quarterback in a system that guarantees lots of yards and points. He’ll get to throw to Josh Reynolds and Speedy Noil or hand it off to Brandon Williams and Tre Carson. The offense is loaded. The schedule is friendlier than a year ago, as A&M plays just three road games in conference and doesn’t leave the state of Texas until October 24 (at Ole Miss) and then doesn’t leave the state again until road games at Vanderbilt and LSU in the final two weeks. The Aggies host Alabama and Auburn and important games against Arizona State and Arkansas in Houston and Dallas are almost home games. Eight starters (including elite defensive end Myles Garrett) return on a defense that is now led by John Chavis. The defense will be improved. How much so determines whether the Aggies win 9 games or potentially win the West. This is the most underrated team in the entire SEC, but the defense will still be a work in progress, so 4th is where they land.

5. Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4, 4-4) – The Razorbacks went just 7-14 in the first 21 games of the Bret Bielema era, but even while they were losing during the better part of last season, they were an intimidating team with a powerful offense and a tough defense. Some wondered just how scary the Hogs could be once they gained the confidence to win SEC games. When they acquired that confidence, they became a nightmare for opponents. They won 3 of their last 4 games, outscoring LSU, Ole Miss and Texas 78-7 and holding the Bayou Bengals and Longhorns to a combined 182 yards of offense. For the rest of the SEC West, it doesn’t get much better this year: 9 starters are back on the Hogs’ offense, including a senior quarterback, two 1,000-yard rushers, the two leading receivers and four starters from an offensive line that is literally bigger than any NFL offensive line. Six starters are back on defense, but they lose 3 of their top 4 tacklers (including Trey Flowers and Martrell Spaight). In addition, the schedule features just three SEC home games and games away from home against Texas A&M, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. While this is Bielema’s best Arkansas team yet, I don’t see as big of a jump as others do. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Hogs win some games that change the dynamic of the SEC West race.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-4, 4-4) – Despite a 2-4 finish, including ugly 30-0 and 42-3 losses to Arkansas and TCU, respectively, Ole Miss made huge strides as a program last season, showing they can compete with the best programs in the conference (beating Alabama 23-17) and become relevant nationally (peaking at #3 in the rankings for 3 weeks). Despite a poor showing late in the season (injury and depth issues didn’t help) and the loss of QB Bo Wallace, this Rebel team might be better than last year’s team. Leading rusher Jaylen Walton is back, and whoever’s the QB in the backfield with him (most believe it will be Chad Kelly), they’ll be protected by an offensive line that returns all 5 starters from last year, including 4 seniors and a junior in Laremy Tunsil, who will be a 1st-round NFL Draft pick next year. One of the best receivers in the country, Laquon Treadwell, is back from injury, and Evan Engram is the best tight end in the country. Pretty much the entire offense, save Bo Wallace, is back. On the other side, the Rebels might field the best defense in the league, returning 7 starters from a year ago, including the Nkemdiche brothers, Trae Elston, Tony Conner and Mike Hilton. However, there are still doubts about Hugh Freeze’s play-calling, the quarterback position is a question mark, the running game needs to improve dramatically and the schedule is much harsher than last year, as the Rebels visit Alabama, Memphis, Florida, Auburn and Mississippi State. While the quality of the team won’t change from last year and might actually improve, their standing in an improved SEC West will decline.

7. Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5, 3-5) – Usually, a team that wins 10 games, is ranked #1 for half the season, makes an appearance in the Orange Bowl and returns its star quarterback doesn’t finish last in its division the next year. However, when that team returns just 6 other starters besides the star quarterback and plays in the best division in the nation, it’s in the realm of possibility. Dak Prescott’s return automatically gives the Bulldogs a chance to be successful, and his favorite receiver, De’Runnya Wilson, returns as well. But elite running back Josh Robinson is gone, as well as 6 other offensive starters from last year. The defense, which was opportunistic but gave up yards last season, returns just 3 starters. The secondary that allowed 273 passing yards per game last season returns two starters, so those numbers might not get much better. The home schedule is great, as LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss visit Starkville, but even with Dak Prescott, the lack of overall experience means the Bulldogs take a step backwards in Dan Mullen’s 7th year.

SEC East:

1. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2, 6-2) – While the SEC West is up for grabs and any game can determine if a team will be in Atlanta or near the division cellar, the SEC East is a little more clear: it’s Georgia, maybe Tennessee, and everyone else. The Dawgs have, by far, the best roster in the division. The quarterback position is a huge question mark, and Todd Gurley is off to the NFL, but returning offensively are record-setting running back Nick Chubb, 5 of last year’s 8 leading receivers and 4 offensive linemen. QB questions aside, this running game will be nearly unstoppable. DC Jeremy Pruitt (whose first defense at UGA improved by 8.3 points per game from 2013) enters his second season in Athens, and his defense returns standouts like Jordan Jenkins, Leonard Floyd, Lorenzo Carter and Dominick Sanders. The schedule is the toughest in the division (SEC West crossovers with Alabama and Auburn, plus road games at Tennessee and Georgia Tech? Yikes.), so I don’t see the Bulldogs escaping the regular season with fewer than 2 losses.

2. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4, 5-3) – Few SEC teams ended 2014 with as much momentum as Tennessee. The Vols are the Arkansas of the SEC East (appropriately enough, the two teams meet in Knoxville on October 3rd). The next step is a winning conference record, which is certainly doable, especially with 18 returning starters, including a terrific backfield of Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd, every single receiver and four offensive linemen. A defense that really improved from Butch Jones’ first to second season (418 YPG to 365) returns 8 starters. Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia make the trek to Neyland. Some think the Volunteers are a legit SEC title contender, but while I think they’re still a year away, this is Butch Jones’ best team so far and at least 8 wins would be promising for 2016’s prospects.

3. South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5, 4-4) – The biggest enigma in the SEC East calls Columbia, South Carolina, home. Most don’t have the Gamecocks on their radar, but many are forgetting that from 2011-2013, this program went 11-2 every year. Last season was a bitter disappointment, and this year Carolina must find a new quarterback and running back, as well as replace 4 of the team’s top 5 receivers from last year. Games against three of the teams considered by many to be the best in the division (Georgia, Tennessee and Missouri) are all on the road. But there are also reasons for optimism. Steve Spurrier’s still Steve Spurrier. The defense returns 8 starters, so the unit should improve greatly on last year’s disaster. Offensive questions and a tough schedule give me pause, but there’s enough talent and good coaching to expect improvement from last year. Also, wide receiver Pharoh Cooper is among the nation’s best, so he’ll make life easier for whoever’s behind center.

4. Florida Gators (6-6, 3-5) – Jim McElwain steps into a strange situation at Florida, which has been wildly uneven ever since Tim Tebow left town. In the past half-decade, the Gators have a Sugar Bowl appearance and a 4-8 disaster sandwiched between three mediocre seasons that saw the team go 22-16. Speaking of which, new coach Jim McElwain had a 22-16 record as head coach at Colorado State, but don’t let that number fool you. He’s a great offensive mind who took the Rams from 4-8 to 10-3 in three years. He inherits a defense that’s loaded with talent, so the Gators should be competitive in most, maybe even all, of their games. But with just 4 returning starters on offense and a brand-new scheme being implemented, not to mention potentially a redshirt freshman quarterback, it’s hard to determine how improved the offense will be. The schedule isn’t kind, either, so expect another mediocre season for the Gators.

5. Missouri Tigers (6-6, 2-6) – Perhaps I should have learned by now to put more faith in Missouri. The last two years, I have predicted the Tigers to go a combined 10-16. In reality, they’ve gone 23-5, won the SEC East twice and gone undefeated in road games. Gary Pinkel is one of the best coaches not only in the SEC, but in all of college football. Entering his 15th season, I should have more faith in the Tigers. But everything this year is pointing down. Only 11 starters return (QB Maty Mauk and RB Russell Hansbrough are back, but the four leading receivers from 2014 are gone), last year’s team won four close SEC games they could have easily lost, and two of the year’s biggest games, Georgia and Arkansas, are on the road. They could (and likely will) exceed my expectations once again, but I would be absolutely stunned if the Tigers were in the SEC Championship hunt down the stretch.

6. Kentucky Wildcats (6-6, 2-6) – Kentucky was silently one of the SEC’s most improved teams last year. After a 4-20 record in 2012 and 2013, the ‘Cats won 5 games last year and only being outscored on the season by 2 points per game (they were outscored on average by 11 in 2013). Bud Dupree is a big loss on the defensive side, but back on offense are underrated quarterback Patrick Towles (the second-best QB in the SEC East behind Josh Dobbs), leading rusher Stanley Williams, leading receiver Ryan Timmons and four offensive linemen. Seven starters are back on defense, so while replacing Bud Dupree will be difficult, the unit as a whole has a chance to improve for the second consecutive year. I’ll call for the Wildcats to be improved enough in a mediocre East division to earn their first bowl bid since 2010.

7. Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10, 0-8) – So far, I’ve predicted that a record 13 SEC teams will be bowl eligible. However, I lack the conviction to make that 14, as the ‘Dores will provide a relatively easy out even for the lesser teams in the SEC East. After going 18-8 in James Franklin’s final two years, Vandy’s football fortunes anchored down. Derek Mason’s first season as a head coach was a complete failure, resulting in 4 starting quarterbacks, fired assistant coaches and complete reversal of the program’s steadily rising trajectory. Vandy does return 18 starters, so the team will be improved, but it’s not hard to improve on the team that hit the field last fall. A team going 3-9 and losing their SEC games by a combined score of 286-102 (average score of 35.8-12.8) could be forgiven of a first-year coach if it was the result of a program being rebuilt, but when a 9-win team becomes a 9-loss team, no quarterback is identified out of a group of 4 in a calendar year and several coaches are fired, one must wonder how long it will take for the program to consistently make bowl games again.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP: Auburn over Georgia