Nov 8, 2014; East Lansing, MI, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett (16) is tackled by Michigan State Spartans safety RJ Williamson (26) during the 2nd half of a game at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Big Ten East:
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 8-0) – The defending national champions enter this season seemingly a sure thing. They hit their stride late last season. After needing 2OT to beat Penn State, they crushed their competition. They defeated four ranked teams (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon), ALL away from Columbus, by a combined score of 192-92. Now, they have two great quarterbacks in Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett, near-2,000-yard rusher Ezekiel Elliot, 6 of their top 7 receivers from 2014, 4 offensive linemen and their top 4 tacklers from last year (and 8 of the top 10,including all-world defensive end Joey Bosa). Even the kicker and punter are back. Head coach Urban Meyer might be the best coach in college football, with a 38-3 record at Ohio State (35-1 regular season) and a 142-26 record overall with three national championships. Only two road games could be challenging (Virginia Tech to start the season and Michigan to end the season), but the most challenging games, Penn State and Michigan State, are at home. Last year, Urban Meyer expected 2014 to be a building year, and 2015 would be the payoff. If that still rings true, college football should be very afraid of the Buckeyes this season.
2. Michigan State Spartans (11-1, 7-1) – While the prospects of Ohio State being even better in 2015 are frightening, those same prospects apply for Michigan State, who defeated Baylor in the Cotton Bowl and only lost to national championship game participants Ohio State and Oregon. Connor Cook and four returning offensive linemen headline the 7 returning starters from an offense that gained 501 yards per game last year, which is a huge number considering they run a largely pro-style offense. There are also 7 starters back on defense, and even though former DC Pat Narduzzi is now the head coach at Pitt, Mark Dantonio will keep the defense playing at a high level. The most impressive thing about this program is that they are impossible to pull an upset over. They take care of the games they should win. Since 2013, they are 5-3 against ranked teams and 19-0 against unranked teams (winning by an average of 39-13). An early game against Oregon in East Lansing looms large. If the Spartans win, the sky is the limit. November will be the biggest month for their Big Ten hopes, as they visit Nebraska and Ohio State and host Penn State. This is a great team that will be in the playoff hunt all season.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3, 5-3) – Despite the Nittany Lions going just 7-6 last year, I’m really high on this team. James Franklin worked wonders at Vanderbilt, and he has a charm and charisma that makes him a great fit for Penn State.He inherited 12 returning starters from a 7-5 team last year, and four of six losses came by a combined 15 points. This season, 15 starters return. A defense that held opponents to 279 yards per game remains largely intact, QB Christian Hackenberg should be much better in his second season under Franklin and stud wide receivers DaeSean Hamilton and Geno Lewis are back. The schedule is also not difficult, with the toughest game before an October 17 visit to Ohio State being the season-opening trap game at Temple. I think the season-ending game against Michigan State will determine an at-large berth in the Rose Bowl.
4. Michigan Wolverines (8-4, 5-3) – While the SEC West might be the best division in the game and the Pac-12 South is also deep with good teams, the Big Ten East is well on its way to being among the toughest in the land. For evidence, look no further than a Jim Harbaugh-coached team being 4th in the division. Michigan fans were thrilled at the news that a former Wolverines QB who had turned Stanford into a national title contender and took the 49ers to Super Bowl XLVII and three NFC title games in four years was coming home to turn around Michigan’s fortunes. This program has been mired in mediocrity. Take away a strange outlier Sugar Bowl-winning season in 2011, and the winningest program in college football history is just 35-40 since Lloyd Carr retired in 2008. Jim Harbaugh will return the program to national title contention very soon, but not this season. He does inherit 15 returning starters, but quarterback is a concern, the non-conference schedule is pretty difficult (Utah, Oregon State and BYU), and new schemes being implemented sometimes carry mixed results. Eight wins would be a nice first season for Harbaugh and company.
5. Maryland Terrapins (5-7, 2-6) – Randy Edsall’s squad had a solid debut season in their new conference, going 4-4 in league play and finishing 3rd in the East behind Ohio State and Michigan State. However, they were no match for the better teams in the league, losing to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin by an average score of 47-15. Only 10 starters return this season, and road games include West Virginia, Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State. This looks like a rebuilding season in College Park.
6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8, 1-7) – Rutgers is basically in the same boat as Maryland. Only 10 starters are back, the road slate is tough (Penn Sate, Wisconsin, Michigan), and the Scarlet Knights’ losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Nebraska came by an average score of 45-11. Hosting Ohio State and Michigan State helps, but even with home field advantage, both games will likely be decided by halftime. Longtime quarterback Gary Nova is gone, as are 5 of the team’s top 7 tacklers. This will be a long season in Piscataway.
7. Indiana Hoosiers (2-10, 0-8) – When the Hoosiers invaded Columbia and upset the 18th-ranked Missouri Tigers, hope was widespread in Bloomington that 2014 would be the season the Hoosiers break through to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But alas, it wasn’t. The offense scored 13.3 fewer points per game than it did in 2013 and the defense was completely ineffective. Tevin Coleman (2,036 yards and 15 touchdowns) is off to the NFL, and the defense returns just 5 starters. Kevin Wilson is just 14-34 at Indiana, and I don’t see his winning percentage rising in 2015.
Big Ten West:
1. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2, 7-1) – While the Big Ten East has national title contenders and star coaches, the Big Ten West, as young as it is, as still seen better days. With a new coach in Paul Chryst, however, the Wisconsin Badgers will remain the powerhouse of the division. Quarterback is a concern (Joel Stave had a 9-10 TD-INT ratio last year) and legendary running back Melvin Gordon is gone, but the Badgers have always replaced great backs with great backs, and Corey Clement (949 yards and 9 touchdowns last year as Gordon’s back-up) will step in and be the second-best running back in the conference behind Ezekiel Elliot. Six starters are back from a defense that was one of the best in the country last year. After an opening loss to Alabama, the Badgers will win their next 10 to clinch their 4th division title in 5 years.
2. Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-3, 6-2) – Jerry Kill has done a fantastic job in Minneapolis. The Gophers were just 20-42 from 2007-2011, but now the program has made three consecutive bowl appearances and have improved every season under Kill. I don’t see that pattern changing this year, despite just 12 returning starters and the departure of star running back David Cobb. Mitch Leidner is an underrated dual-threat quarterback (10 rushing touchdowns last year), and most of the defense is back. This is also a great home schedule, as TCU, Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin come to town. If Wisconsin doesn’t win the division, Minnesota will.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4, 5-3) – I’ve always admired Mike Riley. He won 93 games in 15 years at a program that is historically rather irrelevant. But to be honest, I’m not entirely sure he’s an upgrade over Bo Pelini at Nebraska. Pelini was shown the door for winning 9 games per season, while Riley’s average Beaver squad won six. Again, it is more difficult to win in Corvallis than Lincoln, but with 12 starters back and a non-conference slate that features BYU and a trip to Miami, I see yet another “okay” season for the Huskers.
4. Northwestern Wildcats (6-6, 4-4) – Remember when, as recently as 2013, Northwestern was a darkhorse Big Ten contender with a bright future? In early October 2013, College GameDay was in town for a ranked showdown against Ohio State. It’s been entirely downhill since, as the Wildcats are 6-14 in their last 20 games. There was optimism entering 2014 that the poor showing to end 2013 was a fluke, but early home losses to Cal and Northern Illinois continued the ‘Cats’ downward spiral. This season, non-conference games against Stanford and Duke look challenging, but with leading rusher Justin Jackson and 8 starters on defense returning, expect a return to the postseason.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-6, 3-5) – Kirk Ferentz’s tenure in Iowa City has seemingly become rather stale. The Hawkeyes have been the poster child for being consistently average in the last half-decade. Since an Orange Bowl-winning 11-2 campaign in 2009, Iowa is just 34-30. The team must find a new starting quarterback and running back. A tricky (though not quite intimidating) non-conference schedule sees games at Iowa State and at home against Pitt. Given past results, this team’s ceiling is 6 or 7 wins, despite what is overall one of the easiest schedules for any Power Five team.
6. Purdue Boilermakers (4-8, 2-6) – Darrell Hazell is slowly but surely improving the Boilermaker program. His second team in 2014 was quite an improvement over the 2013 team, cutting the average game score from 38-15 to 32-24, rushing for 90 more yards per game and allowing 44 fewer yards per game. With 15 starters back, I expect more improvement. They won’t reach a bowl, but they’ll win some Big Ten games and be competitive in others, giving the program more confidence going into 2016.
7. Illinois Fighting Illini (4-8, 1-7) – Low expectations for the program sank to rock bottom when Tim Beckman was fired for disturbing behavior regarding injured players. Beckman’s sudden departure is only one of the numerous reasons to believe this team won’t be in a bowl game again. Wes Lunt is an underrated talent at quarterback, and 15 starters are back from a team that did make a bowl, but on the season, the team’s average score was 34-26 in favor of their opponents (outgained on average 456-367). All of their wins were relatively close (only two wins by double digits) while their losses were all by double digits. I see a big step backwards for the program in 2015.
BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State over Wisconsin