Oct 11, 2014; Pasadena, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins running back Paul Perkins (24) stiff arms Oregon Ducks defensive back Erick Dargan (4) during first quarter action at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
PACIFIC-12 CONFERENCE
Pac-12 South:
1. UCLA Bruins (10-2, 7-2) – If any division can challenge the SEC West for the crown of “Best Division”, it’s the loaded Pac-12 South, where 5 of 6 teams finished last season ranked. And while the Pac-12 South team entering this season with the most hype is USC, UCLA stands out to me as the best team in the division. Replacing Brett Hundley is tough, and that job will go to true freshman Josh Rosen, but the Bruins have 18 returning starters (tied with Baylor for the most for any team that won 10+ games in 2014), including RB Paul Perkins (1,575 yards and 9 TDs), every starting and 2nd-string receiver and the entire offensive line. The defense, led by do-it-all Myles Jack, could be the best in the Pac-12. Despite road games against Arizona, Stanford, Utah and USC, I like the Bruins to come out on top of the dog-eat-dog South.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-3, 7-2) – With 16 returning starters (17 if you count QB Mike Bercovici, who led the Sun Devils to a miracle win at USC), Todd Graham’s program will remain relevant in the Pac-12 race. Last season, Arizona State climbed as high as #6 in the College Football Playoff rankings before losing 2 of its final 3 games. Still, this program has gone 10-4 and 10-3 the last two seasons, and there’s plenty of talent on board to make contention possible. The early season schedule is brutal, with games against Texas A&M, USC and UCLA coming in the first 5 weeks. If Arizona State makes it past October 3 with a 5-0 or 4-1 record, this team will become a legitimate national title contender.
3. USC Trojans (9-3, 7-2) – USC enters this season as the highest-ranked team in the Pac-12 South, checking in at #10 in the AP Poll. The last time USC entered the season in the top 10 with a star QB that turned down the NFL to return to school to play for a coach that seemingly can’t get out of his own way, the Trojans spiraled to a 7-6 season under Lane Kiffin in 2012. While this team won’t sink nearly that far, I do think the Trojans are once again overhyped. Cody Kessler is a great quarterback and the offense overall is loaded, but the defense allowed 408 yards per game last year and lost one of the best players in college football, Leonard Williams, to the New York Jets. Also gone is RB Javorius Allen (1,489 yards and 11 TDs) and WR Nelson Agholor (104 catches for 1,313 yards and 12 TDs). Road games include Arizona State, Notre Dame, California and Oregon, while Stanford and UCLA (which is 3-0 against the Trojans under Jim Mora) come to town. Even with more depth and talent, the schedule and key losses prevent this team from winning the division.
4. Arizona Wildcats (8-4, 5-4) – Rich Rodriguez is proving that the Michigan tenure was a fluke, an anomaly of awfulness. He was highly successful at West Virginia and took Arizona to the Pac-12 South title and the Fiesta Bowl last year. So, why does this team finish 4th in its division? There are several factors. The Wildcats went 6-1 last season in games decided by one possession, losing only to Boise State in Glendale. Those kind of close-game odds simply can’t repeat themselves two years in a row – just ask Auburn. Road games include Stanford, Washington, USC and dreaded rival Arizona State (by the way, the Territorial Cup is extremely underrated). Also, this team literally doesn’t have a bye week. They play 12 consecutive weeks and finish the regular season on November 21. QB Anu Solomon, RB Nick Wilson and WR Cayleb Jones are among the best offensive trios in the country, and LB Scooby Wright might be the best football player in the country overall, but with lack of offensive line experience and just 5 non-Scooby returning starters on a defense that allowed points and yards in droves last year, I’ll call for a temporary backslide in the South standings.
5. Utah Utes (6-6, 3-6) – The Utes had a surprising amount of success last season, winning 9 games (including wins over Michigan, UCLA, USC and Stanford). With 14 starters back, including star RB Devontae Booker, Utah is seen by many as a borderline Top 25 team. I disagree, however. Like USC, a defense that somewhat struggled (393 YPG) lost its best player in Nate Orchard (18.5 sacks last year). This year’s game against the Wolverines features the debut of Jim Harbaugh, the quarterback question is a concern and the schedule overall is among the toughest in the entire country. A late win over Colorado gets the Utes to bowl eligibility.
6. Colorado Buffaloes (5-8, 1-8) – Mike MacIntyre’s Buffaloes are steadily improving. Though his second team had only 2 wins and his first had 4, there was no doubt through the eye test that Colorado was a better team last year than in 2013. Games against Cal, Oregon State, UCLA and Utah were all decided by 5 points or fewer. Sefo Liufau cemented his status as a capable quarterback (28 TDs last season) and stud WR Nelson Spruce (1,198 and 12 TDs) is back. Nine starters return on defense, including last season’s top five tacklers. September is a light month, so it’s likely the Buffs will start 4-0. If they do, even if it comes against weaker competition, this team will become truly confident and flirt with bowl eligbility. Thanks to a 13-game schedule, this team will have to go 7-6 to make a bowl, which is unlikely.
Pac-12 North:
1. Oregon Ducks (10-2, 8-1) – With Heisman winner Marcus Mariota off to the NFL, some believe the Ducks will take a step back this season, but I strongly disagree. This program has maintained success regardless of circumstance for most of the last decade, going 80-14 since 2008. In the last 10 years, Oregon has won 10+ games EIGHT times. Sure, that coveted first national title has eluded their grasp, and with a difficult schedule that sees trips to Michigan State, Arizona State and Stanford, plus home games against Cal and USC, I don’t see them being able to reach the College Football Playoff again. But with potential star Vernon Adams at QB, Royce Freeman at RB and the best WR corp on the West Coast, a 5th Pac-12 title in 7 years is a real possibility.
2. Stanford Cardinal (9-3, 7-2) – I picked the Cardinal to make it to the College Football Playoff last year and it didn’t end well. An 8-5 record isn’t bad, per say, but for a program that rose to relevance under Jim Harbaugh and was consistently a contender in David Shaw’s first three seasons, it was underwhelming. There’s reason to believe the Cardinal will improve this season, with a senior quarterback, four returning offensive linemen and a stout defense that, even with just four returning starters, should still be among the league’s best. They’ll still fall short to Oregon in the division, but a 5-loss campaign simply isn’t happening again.
3. California Golden Bears (6-6, 4-5) – The Golden Bears are a hidden gem in the Pac-12. Jared Goff is going to be one of the top QBs selected in next year’s NFL Draft (if he declares), RB Daniel Lasco ripped through defenses for 1,115 yards last year and a defense that struggled immensely last season should be improved thanks to almost the whole unit coming back. The schedule, though, is daunting. The Bears face Texas, Utah, UCLA, USC, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State, games which all might see Cal as an underdog. But Sonny Dykes’ offense will be among the best in the country and the Golden Bears will reach the postseason for the first time since 2011. I’ll declare the Golden Bears the best 6-6 team in college football in 2015.
4. Washington State Cougars (6-6, 3-6) – Just a year ago, the Cougars were seen as a rising team in the North. The 2013 team had flashes of brilliance, almost upsetting eventual SEC champion Auburn, beating a 10-win USC team in the Coliseum and making a bowl game. But all of that momentum was undone in 2014, as the Cougars slid to 3-9 and Connor Halliday went down with an injury. Mike Leach had too much success at Texas Tech to be a complete failure at Wazzu, and with Washington down, 2015 is a perfect time to show the program is still improving. The non-conference schedule isn’t incredibly difficult, so a couple of upsets will send the Cougs to bowl season once again.
5. Washington Huskies (4-8, 2-7) – This is far from an indictment of Chris Petersen. He’s owning the state in recruiting and his track record at Boise State speaks for itself. He’ll bring the Huskies back to relevance. As for 2015, it’s going to be quite rough. Quarterback is a question mark. The defense lost an astounding three first-round picks to the 2015 NFL Draft. A brutal non-conference schedule sees a trip to Boise State and a home game against Chuckie Keeton’s Utah State Aggies. Only 9 total starters return, and they draw USC, Arizona, Utah and Arizona State from the South. I think Petersen will build the Huskies back into a power, but 2015 will serve more as the ground below the foundation than an actual foundation.
6. Oregon State Beavers (2-10, 0-9) – The Beavers snagging Gary Andersen from Wisconsin was one of the best hires of the offseason. One could argue it is the best outside of Michigan hiring Jim Harbaugh. He was 20-7 in two years at Wisconsin — for the sake of comparison, that is the same record as Auburn’s Gus Malzahn — but he steps into a tough situation at Oregon State. Transitioning from a pass-happy scheme to a more pro-style offense will be difficult, especially without QB Sean Mannion. Storm Woods is an underrated running back and having most of the offensive line back helps, but a drastic scheme change, coupled with just 2 returning starters on a mediocre defense, spells certain doom for 2015’s prospects.
PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP: UCLA over Oregon