Oct 11, 2014; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears place kicker Chris Callahan (40) celebrates with teammates after kicking the game winning field goal during the fourth quarter to defeat the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
BIG 12 CONFERENCE
1. Baylor Bears (12-0, 9-0) – Remember when this program was the poster child for awful football? Art Briles has transformed this program in ways once thought impossible, changing the Bears’ image, style and even the stadium. Since 2011, the Bears are 40-12 with 2 Big 12 titles and a Heisman winner in RGIII. This year’s team is the best Art Briles has ever had at Baylor. Despite the loss of QB Bryce Petty, Seth Russell will step right in and play just as well. 18 starters are back (9 offense, 9 defense). They have the Big 12’s best offensive line AND defensive line, a star RB in Shock Linwood, and great receivers in Corey Coleman, K.D. Cannon and Jay Lee. Important games against Oklahoma State and TCU are on the road, but I see this team avoiding the playoff debate by simply running the table and winning their 3rd consecutive Big 12 title.
2. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2, 7-2) – Most would expect TCU to be the next-best team behind the Bears, but the more I look at this Oklahoma team, the more I like them. Baker Mayfield will become a household name throwing the ball in the Sooners’ new air raid offense, and he’s surrounded with talent like Samaje Perine (who ran for an FBS-record 427 yards against Kansas last year) and Sterling Shepard. Last season was a disappointment, but this season, the Sooners are under the radar. The last two times Oklahoma started the season outside the AP Top 10, they won the national title (2000) and the Sugar Bowl (2013). I expect a surprisingly good season from the Sooners.
3. TCU Horned Frogs (9-3, 6-3) – The Horned Frogs are the most-hyped team in college football outside of Ohio State, and the hype isn’t without reason. Trevone Boykin is one of 10 returning starters from an offense that ripped through competition last year, and despite just 5 returning starters on defense, Gary Patterson’s track record indicates the defense will still be strong. However, this team wasn’t always dominant last year, beating Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas by a combined 9 points. While they get Baylor at home, they have to travel to Minnesota, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. It will still be a successful season, but I don’t see a repeat of 12-1 in 2015.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4, 5-4) – The first team that will finish in a 3-way tie for 4th in the conference is Oklahoma State, which returns 16 starters from a young team that suffered a rebuilding season last year. Mason Rudolph came on strong late last season, leading the Pokes to wins against Oklahoma and Washington. The defense, which was a weakness last season, will be improved. Also, TCU, Baylor AND Oklahoma all visit Stillwater. This season could potentially be a special one for the Cowboys, and 8-4 is the absolute floor for this team.
4. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4, 5-4) – The Mountaineers are the most overlooked team in the conference this season. Yes, Clint Trickett is gone, as are Kevin White and Mario Alford, but Skyler Howard might be an improvement over Trickett at quarterback, and Dana Holgersen’s system will produce yards and points in bulk. The defense is where this team will be much improved. Almost the entire unit from last year returns, and it could be one of the best defenses in the league. Last season, WVU showed flashes of brilliance. The combined score of WVU’s games against Baylor and TCU last year is actually in WVU’s favor, 71-58. This team could have won 10 games last year if not for a turnover The only reason I see this team going 8-4 instead of 10-2 is the schedule, which sees road games against Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU.
4. Texas Longhorns (7-5, 5-4) – Longhorn fans hope 2015 will be the year that Texas bucks a trend of mediocrity (36-28 since 2010). However, signs aren’t pointing toward substantial improvement in Charlie Strong’s second season. The QB position is a weakness, with Tyrone Swoopes likely the starter (13-11 TD-INT ratio). Johnathan Gray is a strength at running back, and the defense will be solid again, but the offense won’t be consistent enough to compete for the Big 12 title.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6, 4-5) – Kliff Kingsbury’s career started smoothly at Texas Tech, as the team started 7-0 in his first season in 2012. Since then, the Red Raiders are 5-13, giving up 42.3 points per game. The good news for Kingsbury is he has 17 returning starters this season, so the offense should be explosive again. If they can cut down on turnovers, a bowl game is well within reach.
8. Kansas State Wildcats (6-6, 3-6) – I realize how risky it is to doubt a Bill Snyder team. Bill Snyder is one of the greatest college football coaches of all time. However, many of the best players from last year’s 9-4 team are gone. The home schedule is great, as TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor and West Virginia visit Manhattan. But ultimately, this team is too inexperienced to make a splash in the Big 12. Of course, that’s been said before of Bill Snyder teams…
9. Iowa State Cyclones (3-9, 1-8) – When a coach averages 5 wins per season, he usually doesn’t make it 7 seasons at his school, let alone 7 seasons without his seat warming up. Paul Rhoads’ seat is, at worst, lukewarm, but one must wonder if that’s a product of Rhoads or a product of Iowa State football’s expectations. This season won’t see much of a boost in Rhoads’ winning percentage. The offense has some talent (QB Sam Richardson, WRs Quenton Bundrage, D’Vario Montgomery and Allen Lazard), but this team simply lacks overall talent and depth. It will be Iowa State’s 6th consecutive losing season.
10. Kansas Jayhawks (0-12, 0-9) – Yes, you read that correctly. The Jayhawks will not win a single football game in 2015. Only 7 starters return from a 3-9 team. A new coach (David Beaty) is stepping in. The nonconference games (South Dakota State, Memphis and Rutgers) are all losable. This program has no talent or depth. This program went 20-6 in 2007 and 2008, winning the Orange and Insight bowls. Since then, Kansas is an embarrassing 17-55. Beaty steps into an impossible situation in 2015. Of all the awful Kansas teams in the past decade, this team will be the worst, and it might not be close.