Auburn basketball dropped a disappointing final game in Auburn Arena on senior night, but there’s still one more regular season game left at Mississippi State. Auburn (11-18, 5-12) looks to spoil senior night for Mississippi State (13-16, 6-11) despite their much improved play as of late.
For most of the season, Mississippi State has been right at the bottom of the conference just like Auburn. Mississippi State is very similar to Auburn in terms of their hopes and expectations going forward, but most thought they would be one step ahead with the presence of five-star guard Malik Newman playing for the Bulldogs this season. However, Newman has been injured off and on for most of the season and other factors have led to Mississippi State under performing until lately.
Within the last few weeks, Mississippi State has started to get things together and have won four of their last seven, and have gone 6-6 since starting out 0-5 in SEC play. Within the last two weeks, Mississippi State has knocked off Vanderbilt and South Carolina at home and Alabama on the road, while also losing to Texas A&M by just two points.
While Mississippi State is a favorite by most cases due to their improved play as of late, it still would be nice to see Auburn ruin the final home game at the Hump for Mississippi State’s five seniors.
Auburn needs to get this win if they want to stand a chance of getting a first round bye in the SEC Tournament. If Auburn is able to beat Mississippi State and Ole Miss can take care of Tennessee, then Auburn will be the 11 seed in the SEC Tournament and will not have to play in the Wednesday game. However, if Auburn loses this game then they will either face Tennessee or Mississippi State in the 12-13 game on Wednesday.
A win for Auburn would also allow the Tigers to match their regular season from a year ago and would give them two more SEC wins. It seems like a small difference between playing in the 12-13 game or getting the 11 seed, but Auburn could greatly benefit from an extra day of rest and planning, and would also only have to theoretically win four games to make the NCAA Tournament instead of five.
All of that is very hypothetical, but the same was said of last year’s team. I think this team is slightly better than last year’s team, and the talent at the top of the SEC is not near as good as it was last year (i.e. we wouldn’t have to go up against an unstoppable Kentucky team).
Before I get ahead of myself and start getting excited for post season tournaments, let’s take a look at Auburn’s chances against Mississippi State. It’s odd not being able to have another game to look back upon for the very final game of the conference slate, but that’s the case here. Auburn will face the Bulldogs for the first time this season and it will be the first matchup for Bruce Pearl and Ben Howland to face off with their new schools.
Ben Howland has a slightly more talented team in this year’s matchup, but Auburn has proven that they can still step up at times and play well. After getting manhandled by Texas A&M, Auburn will be much less undersized against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have a little more depth down low, but if we just look at the starting five, Auburn should have a slight height advantage at almost every position. This could lead to Auburn trying to play a little bit more down low to start off instead of immediately looking for deep shots.
This is another game where I think Tyler Harris and T.J. Dunans can be big keys. If Tyler Harris is able to have another aggressive game under the basket it might be the attack that Auburn needs. While Gavin Ware can hold his own down low, he’s not known as a dominant shot blocker and I think Harris will be strong enough to get his shots up.
After going inside to Tyler Harris, Auburn should also try to get T.J. Dunans attacking the basket early and often. With Texas A&M’s size and athleticism, they were able to almost completely eliminate Dunans’s threat at the rim, but Mississippi State likely won’t have the same fortune. Dunans could see himself being guarded by either IJ Ready, Craig Sword, or Malik Newman. Newman and Sword would be 2-inches shorter, but at 5-foot-11 Ready gives up almost a full 6-inches to Auburn’s athletic guard. Dunans should attack the basket and be aggressive so that eventually he can free up shots for Bryce Brown, TJ Lang, and Jordon Granger on the perimeter, where hopefully at least one of them can find their rhythm.
If Dunans and Harris aren’t able to score at the rim, or Auburn’s shooter aren’t able to get hot, Mississippi State’s poor rebounding could leave the door open. The Bulldogs are 322nd in the nation allowing an offensive rebound on 33.9 percent of possessions. This is where Cinmeon Bowers should step in and try to earn his points on the second chance. Texas A&M almost completely eliminated Bowers from the glass in the last game and it hurt Auburn dramatically. With Dunans back, Bowers doesn’t necessarily have to be a scoring machine, but if the senior can’t pull down rebounds, Auburn is in trouble.
The same can be said on the other end. Bowers is the best defensive rebounder in the SEC and he’ll need to play like that to eliminate second chance opportunities. Texas A&M killed Auburn on the boards, and that can’t happen in this game against a smaller team.
With five seniors and two talented freshmen that have a chance of declaring for the draft, there should be a lot of emotions from both the players and the fans in this game. After losing to Texas A&M on their own senior night, I’m sure Tyler Harris, Cinmeon Bowers, and Jordon Granger wouldn’t mind ruining the party for someone else.
The Tigers returned to their old selves with a second half collapse that we haven’t seen in too long. If they can get a good start like they did last game, they can’t let off the gas this time. Granger and Bowers need to step up more as leaders and can’t let Harris carry the team by himself if Auburn is going to ruin the final home game for several players. I know I didn’t mention Granger as a major key in this game, but as a senior who can play either the three or the four, he has the ability to make a difference in this game where he will likely be guarded by smaller guys.
Mississippi State has looked really good lately, and it’s hard to pick against them after they are coming off some impressive wins. I think Auburn matches up well with the Bulldogs, but I’m not sure if they’ll be able to play at the same level that Mississippi State has lately in order to get the win on the road. I think we’ll see good games from Auburn’s three seniors in their final regular season games, but I don’t think it will be enough. Auburn will give Mississippi State a scare as the emotions are high in the beginning, but eventually the Bulldogs will get things turned around and work their way to a narrow win.
I have Mississippi State winning this one over Auburn, 75-70.
Date: March 5, 2016
Opponent: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Location: Humphrey Coliseum (Starkville, MS)
TV: SEC Network @ 1:30 CST