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SEC Tournament Preview: Auburn’s Unlikely Path to the Championship Game

By Jacob Varner

Feb 24, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl talks to his team late in the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Arena. The Tigers beat the Bulldogs 84-81. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 24, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl talks to his team late in the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Arena. The Tigers beat the Bulldogs 84-81. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports /
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Auburn had the opportunity to skip the opening round game if they had won against Mississippi State on Saturday; however, with the loss, Auburn is now the 13th seed in the SEC Tournament and will have to win five consecutive games if they want to make a miracle run to the NCAA Tournament.

As the lowest seed in the tournament after finishing only above Missouri in the SEC standings, it is obviously a long shot for Auburn to run the table and win the conference. Last year the Tigers shocked almost everyone in their run to the semi-finals after wins over Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and LSU. I don’t expect Auburn to make a run quite as impressive as last season, but if they were to make a run, here is how it would go:

In the very first game of the SEC Tournament, Auburn will face off against Tennessee on Wednesday night at 7 CT on the SEC Network. Auburn split the season series with the Volunteers with each team winning on their home court. With the SEC Tournament being held in Nashville, this will be more of a home game for Tennessee, but on an official neutral court, this game could go either way. Tennessee is on a five-game losing streak compared to Auburn’s three-game losing streak. I’ll have my full preview for the game up soon going over the details of the game, but in short I think Auburn can get the win, but it’s not expected.

Next, if Auburn is able to get past Tennessee, they will then have to face Vanderbilt at 2 CT again on the SEC Network. This game will be an almost impossible task for the Tigers as they were beaten both times by Vanderbilt in the regular season by a combined 47 points. The Commodores have been improving down the stretch and are still one of the most talented teams on paper. This is not an ideal matchup for the Tigers who will be playing on around 17 hours of rest. Auburn fans probably don’t need to make plans past Thursday, but with Bruce Pearl on the sideline, you never know.

Mar 13, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Auburn Tigers guard KT Harrell (1) shoots over LSU Tigers forward Jarell Martin (1) during the second half to send the game to overtime of the third round of the SEC Conference Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 13, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Auburn Tigers guard KT Harrell (1) shoots over LSU Tigers forward Jarell Martin (1) during the second half to send the game to overtime of the third round of the SEC Conference Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports /

If, by some miracle, Auburn is able to knock off Tennessee and Vanderbilt, then Auburn will once again meet the LSU Tigers in the Quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Auburn and LSU would face off at 2 CT on the SEC Network in the exact same matchup of last season. While the story leading up to this would be great, LSU has even more talent this season compared to last and would once again be a heavy favorite over Auburn after defeating Auburn by 12 in Auburn Arena on February 2. KT Harrell isn’t going to walk out of that tunnel and make another amazing buzzer beater to send the game to overtime, so if Auburn is somehow in this game, I don’t see how they would win. Although, if they’ve made it this far, who knows who will stop them.

A Quarterfinal win for Auburn would send them to the semi-finals once again, but this time they would likely be facing Texas A&M, the top seed in the SEC Tournament. Texas A&M won their first SEC regular season title and has been impressive almost all season long. Texas A&M is a very good basketball team, but unlike last year’s semi-final matchup, the Aggies aren’t unbeatable like last year’s Kentucky team was.

Finally, if Auburn somehow wins four games in four days, it’ll likely find itself in the SEC Tournament Championship Game against the Kentucky Wildcats. The Championship Game will be held on Sunday at noon CT, this time on ESPN. Despite being the number 2 seed, Kentucky is the favorite to win the SEC Tournament, and while they aren’t as good as last year’s team, they would likely be favored to knock off the Tigers and win yet another SEC Championship. At this point, if Auburn had made it this far and already has a big win over the Wildcats this season, I would probably be inclined to pick Auburn in this game. If Bruce Pearl makes another run, this time all the way to the Championship Game, with a lackluster roster, then I will be the first person to ask Jay Jacobs to sign the man to a lifelong contract worth an absurd amount of money.

I can hope as much as I want, but this team is just not expected to make a run very far. I will be pulling for them to get a win in the opening game once again, but a second round matchup with Vanderbilt will likely kill any momentum that the Tigers have coming off their win over Tennessee.

Fingers crossed for another deep run in the Tournament, but no matter what happens with the Tigers, this year’s SEC Tournament looks to be one of the best ones in awhile.

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