Everybody in Auburn, Ala., and the college football world knows that 2016 is a career-defining season for Gus Malzahn. Win big — or at least enough — and he could secure his future on The Plains for some time to come.
Lose big — or at least enough — and he could find his professional future taking a severe step back.
Les Miles finds himself in a similar situation. It appeared for at least a few weeks late last year that he had walked about 95 percent of a purple and gold plank, and that his firing at the end of the Bayou Bengals’ regular season was all but inevitable. After defeating Texas A&M, though, and due to mass public support for Miles from the LSU faithful, the decision-makers backed off, stating that Miles would remain on the sidelines in Baton Rouge.
Lose enough, though, and this will have been merely a stay of execution.
So it goes that Malzahn and Miles face similar turning-point seasons in their careers. But it didn’t have to be this way.
Among the myriad of reasons that could have landed the two coaches in this position, there is one above all others that flashes brightly. I believe it was one recent, central miscalculation that has (temporarily at the very least) placed their futures at their current schools in doubt. And that similar — yet opposite — calculation has to do with the most important position of all, making it all the more devastating.
Malzahn is a magician with a dual-threat quarterback, a top-five play-caller in the college game when he has one capable of running his offense. Without one, his wizardry drops off a precipitous cliff against SEC defenses (and no stats from his Tulsa offenses will change this fact).
Why, then, did his 2015 Auburn team take the field without a quarterback of that type even on the roster? (Jason Smith was never truly given an opportunity to win the job before moving to wide receiver, but throws he made on gimmick plays during 2015 make it seem doubtful he had the arm strength anyway.)
So why then? It would be an error in judgement, both in his evaluation of Jeremy Johnson’s preparedness and ability to be a starting quarterback in the SEC in 2015, and in what type of signal-caller makes his own offense most devastating. (I would wager that SEC head coaches and defensive coordinators were quite happy to learn, even before the 2015 season was underway, that Malzahn would not have a true dual-threat quarterback running his system.)
Meanwhile, Miles has truly been his own worst enemy as of late. Despite running an offense that would obviously work best with a traditional pro-style quarterback with a plus in pure passing ability, he has continued to recruit and, worse, start dual-threats. Last season, it was Brandon Harris. In 2014, it was Harris and Anthony Jennings.
Malzahn is at his strongest with a dual-threat, creating magic in games with not just the great Cam Newton, but with a future NFL defensive back in Nick Marshall (pictured above, center) as well, and he didn’t even have one on the roster for last season. Miles’ offense is tailor-made for a pocket-passer, and he continues to focus on starting and recruiting the opposite in Harris and the class of 2017’s Lowell Narcisse.
These kinds of personnel decisions have consequences, and last year, with Auburn failing mightily to meet preseason expectations and LSU contemplating firing Miles until the final week of the regular season, are testament to that.
As for Miles, Harris seems locked in as his starter and — surprise, surprise — The Hat will continue to play against type and logic. Despite the best running back in the college game and what should be a strong defense, the mis-fit at quarterback will continue on the Bayou and so likely will the tenuous nature of Miles’ future.
If John Franklin III is the real deal at Auburn, Malzahn might be looking at a career resurgence. That is, if he makes the right decision to play the quarterback that gives him — and the Tigers — the greatest chance of success. That seems like a given, but not having a dual-threat quarterback option to even consider last season makes it appear as if some things aren’t so obvious.
(Auburn has recruited dual-threat quarterbacks that signed elsewhere, including Harris, but the lack of signing one at all in 2014 or 2015 isn’t really excusable. Signing Franklin and Woody Barrett in 2016 and Narcisse being the top target for 2017 shows that Malzahn, to his credit, will not make this mistake again.)
Simply put: Malzahn needs Franklin to pan out. Those all-too-frequent dive plays on both first and second down would go from easily predictable for the defense to easily predictable but still tough to stop as the threat of the quarterback keeping it and burning the defense on the ground becomes very real. Everything becomes tougher to defend.
Especially with Malzahn waving his wand.