Auburn Baseball Hopes to Improve Tourney Picture in Last Home Series

After splitting a pair of midweek games, Auburn baseball (22-27, 8-16) will get ready to host Mississippi State (34-14, 15-9) in what will be their last home series of the season.

Right now the Tigers are tied for 10^th in the overall SEC standings, but they’re just a game ahead of Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee. They’ll need a big weekend at home to distance themselves from the pack. Tennessee takes on LSU, Missouri plays Georgia and Arkansas will host Alabama, so they’ll all have easier matchups than Auburn who takes on the fourth ranked Bulldogs.

Mississippi State has surpassed Auburn offensively as they now rank second in the SEC with a .308 team batting average, while posting 6.6 runs per game. Auburn slots in right behind them with a .304 average.

The big difference comes in pitching staffs where the Bulldogs have a 3.54 ERA with 444 strikeouts in 442.1 innings pitched, while Auburn has a 4.33 team ERA with 358 strikeouts in 436.1 innings pitched.

Dakota Hudson is the staff ace with a 2.80 ERA in 80.1 innings with 85 strikeouts. He’s projected to go late in the first round of the upcoming MLB Draft. Austin Sexton owns a 3.66 ERA in 71.1 innings with 70 strikeouts.

Their bullpen is where they really hurt you as they have five guys with ERAs under four that have tossed at least 17 innings. Ryan Rigby is the leader in the bullpen with a 1.83 ERA in 15 appearances with 28 strikeouts in 34.1 innings.

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Offensively, Jake Mangum is one of the top hitters in the SEC with a .413 batting average. Nathanial Love is hitting a solid .351 with 32 runs, 4 home runs and 39 RBIs. The Bulldogs have four other guys in their lineup hitting over .300, and Gavin Collins is knocking on the door at .299 as he leads the team with 8 home runs.

After looking at the stats they have put up, it’s no wonder they’re considered one of the best five teams in the country with a chance to make a run into Omaha. The Tigers will have their hands full once again this weekend as they try and pick up at least one win against a top ranked team.

Anfernee Grier and Niko Buentello will need to come up with some big hits if Auburn is to score some runs against that Bulldog pitching staff. Grier is hitting .383 with 54 runs, 10 home runs and 38 RBIs. Buentello is hitting .342 with 39 runs, 10 home runs and 50 RBIs.

With Joshua Palacios still out, the rest of the Auburn lineup will have to find a way to get on base in front of Grier and Buentello to give them RBI opportunities.

On the pitching side of things, Cole Lipscomb and Justin Camp will have to step their games up. Lipscomb was pulled early last weekend because of fatigue after throwing a complete game the weekend before. Camp was solid for six-plus innings against Alabama last weekend before getting stuck with a no decision after a blown save in the ninth. They both have the ability to limit the Mississippi State offense, but Coach Thompson will have a short leash on both as these are must-win games.

All-in-all, Auburn has to find a way to at least win one game at home against Mississippi State. If they can do that I think they keep their spot in the tournament for the time being, and then hope they catch Vanderbilt on a down week to end the season.

Like I said against Alabama, if they can steal one of the first two games then I like their chances of winning the series on Sunday, which would have happened against Alabama had they not blown the lead in the ninth on Saturday.

If they pick up two wins this weekend then I feel pretty safe that they’ll make the tournament no matter what happens in Nashville next weekend.

War Eagle!