Auburn Basketball: How Auburn basketball can make good on Barkley’s guarantee

Here we take a look at comments made by Auburn basketball legend Charles Barkley, and how the program is taking steps to follow suit.

TNT basketball commentator Charles Barkley — otherwise known as the most important person in Auburn basketball history — raised eyebrows last week during the NCAA Tournament when he guaranteed that the Tigers would be in the Big Dance in 2018.

“Auburn will be playing in the NCAA Tournament next year … guaranteed!” Barkley said in his usual boisterous way. “And, I’m going to take the day off!”

Coach Bruce Pearl publicly endorsed the guarantee. But let’s face facts: If Auburn doesn’t make the NCAA Tournament next year, it will put pressure on Athletic Director Jay Jacobs to do something.

Four SEC basketball teams — Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina and Arkansas — made the NCAA Tournament this year, and all of them except Arkansas won at least two games to make the Sweet 16.

Let’s assume that the Big Dance takes four teams from the SEC in 2018. That means that Auburn needs to perform at or above the level of the Gamecocks or Razorbacks next year to make it.

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South Carolina won 22 games during the regular season, including a 12-6 mark in the SEC. South Carolina also had some signature wins before SEC play, defeating Michigan by 15 and Syracuse by 14. In the SEC, it split games with Florida, winning at home and losing on the road.

Although the Gamecocks lost their last two games against non-tournament teams Ole Miss and Alabama, its resume was good enough to warrant a No. 7 seed. And as we all know, it upset Duke in the second round.

Arkansas, a No. 8 seed in the Dance, also had a 12-6 mark in the SEC and won 24 games during the regular season. Its resume was enhanced by defeating South Carolina during the regular season and then making the finals of the SEC Tournament, losing to Kentucky.

The Razorbacks actually were leading UNC-Chapel Hill by five with less than 4 minutes to go in the second round of the NCAA before collapsing.

Based on those performances, it means that Auburn will need to win at least 12 games in the SEC next year and at least 22 or 23 games overall to merit a spot.

That means a five-game improvement from this year’s 7-11 mark in the SEC. And it also means that Auburn will need to beat at least one, and maybe two, other teams that make the NCAA Tournament.

The five-game improvement in the SEC is easy to see — Auburn was swept by both Ole Miss and Georgia this year. Those four games are winnable next year.  And the fifth could come in the first round of the SEC Tournament, barring an inexplicable meltdown like this year’s embarrassment against seven-win Missouri.

Auburn’s schedule for 2017-18 won’t be released for a few more months, but it’s likely Pearl and Jacobs will book some programs with a basketball reputation. It’s imperative that its performance next year includes a signature win or two. Its best wins this year were against Alabama, which had an RPI of 78.

So, the minimum for Auburn to make the dance appears to be 12-6 in the SEC, 22 or 23 wins, and one or two wins against teams with an RPI above 50.

Anything less means the Tigers won’t be dancing, and Pearl is under pressure. Of course, anything more than that, and Pearl is the toast of the town.

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