Phil Steele’s Auburn football picks: Analyzing what he says about Tigers in 2018
By Rob Maxwell
We think Phil Steele and his annual college football preview is excellent and it’s time to dissect his projections for Auburn football in 2018.
If you’re a college football fan, you’ve either purchased Phil Steele’s 2018 College Football Preview or at least stopped in a bookstore, found your favorite team and spent several minutes — or half an hour — seeing what he thinks of them.
In our case, it’s Auburn. Everyone has predictions for the Tigers — we’ll have them close to the fall, too — and Steele puts as much (and probably more) time analyzing all angles as any of them.
Here’s a look at where he ranks Auburn in different national categories and what we think of some of them. On Tuesday, we’ll look at where he ranks Auburn among SEC teams.
National rankings
Preseason Top 25: No. 19
Steele makes note of Auburn playing three road games against Top 5 teams (at No. 1 Alabama, vs. No. 4 Washington in Atlanta, at No. 5 Georgia). The No. 19 ranking is lower than just about any other projection you’ll see, but Steele is looking at the entire season. If that’s the case and he’s projecting three losses against these teams, 19th looks about right.
FlyWarEagle verdict: If you think Auburn is losing all three of those games, you’re out of your mind. The Tigers are too good to drop all three, especially after taking 2 of 3 against Alabama and Georgia last season.
National position rankings
Quarterback: No. 4
Steele ranks Penn State, West Virginia and UCF ahead of Auburn and that’s understandable. What’s interesting is that Auburn is No. 1 here among SEC teams. Sports Illustrated certainly didn’t see things this way when it released its Top 100 players list last month and SEC Country writers gave Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa the nod for player of the year.
FlyWarEagle verdict: We like this. If it comes true, it will be difficult to see Auburn as low as 19th in the nation in the Top 25 as Steele predicts.
Running backs: No. 23
FlyWarEagle verdict: After losing the back-to-back top rushers in the SEC in Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway, it’s a testament to the talent the Tigers return and recruited to be ranked this high. Sky is the limit for this backfield in 2018 and beyond.
Receivers: No. 9
This makes Auburn the SEC’s No. 3 unit, according to Steele, in the nation behind Ole Miss (1) and Georgia (8). When’s the last time an Auburn receiving corps entered a season with this sort of expectation?
FlyWarEagle verdict: Steele notes the injuries to Eli Stove and Will Hastings and still keeps Auburn this high. On the surface, this could be a little optimistic, but with Stidham slinging it, there’s no reason this group shouldn’t be one of the 10 best units in the country. Despite the Stove and Hastings injuries, the talent runs deep and it’s going to be real interesting to see how Chip Lindsey incorporates freshman speedster Anthony Schwartz into the offense.
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Offensive line: No. 53
FlyWarEagle verdict: You know and I know that Auburn is much better than 53rd in the nation. But this unit has to prove it on the field. No need to argue here — let the mostly inexperienced offensive line prove its worth. It should be better than No. 53, but how much better will go a long way in determining how far the Tigers go in 2018. It starts Week 1 against an excellent Washington team.
Defensive line: No. 5
FlyWarEagle verdict: Raise your hand if you smile when thinking about this season’s front seven (it’s OK to raise both hands). Kevin Steele must sleep well at night when he thinks about it. Dontavius Russell, Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson, Nick Coe, Big Kat Bryant, TD Moultry. Yes, please.
Linebackers: No. 15
FlyWarEagle: It’s good to see Auburn linebackers making an impact again after years of so-so production. Steele has done an excellent job turning this unit into a real strength the last few seasons. With Deshaun Davis, Darrell Williams and Montavious Atkinson back and a handful of talented underclassmen, expect big things again. If the defensive front plays like it should, the linebackers could emerge as a Top 10 group.
Defensive backs: No. 21
FlyWarEagle verdict: This places Auburn sixth among SEC teams. Losing CB Carlton Davis and safety Tray Matthews hurts. Much like the offensive line, the secondary needs to prove how good it is early this season. Javaris Davis at corner is a good start. The Tigers have a fair amount of experience, but some — like freshman safety Smoke Monday — will be tested in new situations. Can they avoid the big mistake?
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Special teams: Not ranked
FlyWarEagle verdict: It’s odd not seeing Auburn listed among the Top 55 special teams units after four seasons with the nation’s best kicker in Daniel Carlson. But that Carlson is gone — his brother Anders Carlson steps in — and there are other holes. Auburn wasn’t bad returning punts and kicks last season, but wasn’t all that good, either. Noah Igbinoghene showed game-breaking potential at kick returner and Ryan Davis had a couple good punt returns But until Carlson resembles his older brother and the Tigers become more of a threat returning kicks, unranked is where Auburn should be.
Other national rankings
Toughest schedule: No. 25
FlyWarEagle verdict: This seems low. According to Steele, Auburn plays three Top 5 teams away from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Does it get more difficult than that? But Auburn knows what it’s getting every season and with Georgia finally taking hold of the top spot in the SEC East, the schedule inherently gets that much more treacherous. This places Auburn third among toughest SEC schedules — Texas A&M gets Clemson as a non-conference foe and that puts it close to Auburn’s schedule — but 25th is not doing the Tigers’ slate justice.
Top QB: Stidham, 4th
Top WR: Slayton, 18th, Davis, 59th
Top TE: Jalen Harris, 41st
Top FB: Chandler Cox, 6th
Top OT: Prince Tega Wanogho, 16th
Top G: Mike Horton, 91st
Top DE: Davidson, 9th, Coe, 17th
Top DT: Brown, 7th, Russell, 11th
Top OLB: Williams, 48th
Top ILB: D. Davis, 29th
Top CB: J. Davis, 15th, Jamel Dean, 20th
All-American Team: Stidham, third team