SEC preseason order of finish: Expect three-team race as, for most part, voters get it right

On Friday, the SEC released the media’s picks for how the West and East divisions will play out this season. For the most part, they got it right.

Earlier this week, we predicted how the media would vote and came thisclose to nailing it. The only thing we predicted that didn’t happen was Florida being second in the East in front of South Carolina. For the record, in FlyWarEagle’s picks, we had South Carolina in front of the Gators.

Here’s how the media voted from SEC Media Days this week in Atlanta (first-place votes in parentheses, then total votes):

SEC West 

1. Alabama (263): 1,971
2. Auburn (19): 1,664
3. Mississippi State (2): 1,239
4. Texas A&M: 1,091
5. LSU: 1,025
6. Ole Miss: 578
7. Arkansas: 412

FlyWarEagle analysis: This went about the way we expected. Despite Auburn beating Alabama last season and winning the SEC West, the Crimson Tide was the overwhelming favorite to win it after winning the College Football Playoff title last season despite not playing for its own conference title. That’s not a knock on Alabama (well, maybe a little one) because Alabama has earned the right to be the No. 1 pick year in and year out. We said as much earlier this week. The point is this: Alabama winning the West is not a given. Auburn should be a national player this season and when LSU is picked to finish fifth, your division must be strong.

I thought the biggest surprise was that the overall gap in votes between Auburn and Alabama was tighter than the gap between No. 3 Mississippi State and Auburn. The Bulldogs have been getting all sorts of love this offseason and first-year coach Joe Moorhead’s approval rating is sky high despite not really doing a thing (yet). But Auburn did torch the Bulldogs, 49-10, last season and with as much back as Auburn has, moving the game to Starkville this season and closing a 39-point gap feels like an unlikely thing to happen.

RELATED: McElroy praises Auburn (yeah, he did) | Gus + U2, the Auburn playlist for 2018

SEC East

1. Georgia (271): 1,977
2. South Carolina (8): 1,535
3. Florida (4): 1,441
4. Missouri: 1,057
5. Kentucky (1): 874
6. Tennessee (1): 704
7. Vanderbilt: 392

FlyWarEagle analysis: A few things jump out here. First, that voters placed the Gamecocks in front of the Gators. South Carolina is a better team. It’s that simple. The Gators were a trainwreck last season and it’s not a far-fetched idea to expect Dan Mullen quickly to get things pointed in the right direction. It helps that the East is mediocre to weak below Georgia and South Carolina.

Second, Tennessee being placed below Kentucky. The Wildcats usually are penciled in just above Vanderbilt, but voters must see the Vols as a challenging project for first-year Jeremy Pruitt, who might be a project as a head coach himself.

And last: Vanderbilt. Is it a foregone conclusion the Commodores have to land in the bottom spot? Sure, they were 1-7 in the SEC last season, but Vandy beat Tennessee by 18 points in Knoxville. But there is Vanderbilt, way down at the bottom.

SEC Champion

Alabama: 193
Georgia: 69
Auburn: 14
South Carolina: 4
Florida: 2
Mississippi State: 1
Missouri: 1

FlyWarEagle analysis: If a team other than Alabama, Georgia or Auburn wins the SEC title in 2018, either something extraordinary has happened for another team, something disastrous has happened for those three teams or a combination of both. Seriously, who are the four people who picked Florida, Mississippi State and Missouri?

Next: Stidham, Bo or Joey? Who will win Auburn's next Heisman