Auburn football: Analyst’s breakdown of Tigers hits all hot spots

If you follow college football closely, then you’re familiar with Bill Connelly of SB Nation. He puts together previews for all FBS teams and on Tuesday, his Auburn football preview was published and it had some interesting points.

First off, let me say that Connelly is one of the best in the business (you should follow him here). His breakdowns are well-researched and meticulous. His analysis of Auburn football in the upcoming season is to the point and almost makes too much sense. It’s almost always a good thing to read what someone writes or listen to what someone says who isn’t around a team on a daily basis, especially when that person knows their subject like Connelly does.

With that in mind, here are some of the items I found most interesting about his analysis:

Gus Malzahn

"In five seasons, Malzahn has beaten Saban-era Alabama twice — the only other active coach to have done that is Urban Meyer — won two SEC West titles and a championship game and made one national title game. Based on preseason AP rankings, he’s exceeded expectations three times and finished in the postseason top 10 twice.This is all with what might be the hardest average schedule in the country. Adjusting for opponent, he’s finished 13th or better in S&P+ four times."

Hey Auburn fans, are you closely reading this? He says that Auburn has had that success with “what might be the hardest average schedule in the country.” It feels like every season outside of a trip to the national title game, someone is placing Malzahn on the hot seat. Without a doubt, winning 12 games in his first season in 2013 followed by seasons with 8, 7 and 8 wins before getting 10 last season is frustrating. That’s why this season could tip the scales in Malzahn’s favor. Since 1990, Auburn has won at least 10 games on average about once every four seasons. The last (and only) time the Tigers claimed double-digit wins in back-to-back seasons is 1988 and 1989. Getting to 10 this season, given the schedule, would be a breakthrough of sorts.

The schedule, Part I

"Back-loaded schedules keep changing how we view AU’s seasons. The 2018 Tigers face three teams in the projected S&P+ top six, all away from home, and two — No. 6 Georgia and No. 2 Alabama — come, as usual, in the last three weeks of the regular season. There are four other projected top-25 teams as well."

Connelly notes that along with Auburn’s dud of a finish in 2017 (season-ending losses to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and UCF in the Peach Bowl), the Tigers have struggled closing out seasons. That includes losing 4 of 5 to wrap 2014, 4 of 7 in 2015 and 3 of 4 in 2016.

Those sorts of finishes are made possible by playing Georgia and Alabama in two of the final three weeks of the season. As much as it frustrates Auburn fans to lose to those two teams, especially the Crimson Tide, it should be noted that after Nick Saban’s first season at Alabama, the Tide have lost just 14 games in 10 seasons. Malzahn is 2-3 vs. Saban. You know how many other coaches have fared that well during the same time? Zero.

The schedule, Part II

"The schedule defines AU’s seasons, and the schedule’s usually hard."

If the schedule defines Auburn’s season, then this season is going to be a big one. 

Connelly says that the average record of the last six teams to beat Auburn is 12-2. Those six teams are:

2017: Georgia (13-2), UCF (13-0), Clemson (12-2), LSU (9-4)
2016: Oklahoma (11-2), Alabama (14-1)

The 2018 schedule is brutal. Top 10 Washington in Atlanta to kick off the season, road games at Top 20 Mississippi State and Top 5 rivals Georgia and Alabama. And don’t forget LSU and Texas A&M.

But here’s the thing: The best teams — the teams fighting it out in the College Football Playoff — win at home, on the road and in neutral-site games.

2017: Alabama beat FSU in Atlanta, won at Texas A&M and Mississippi State and won a pair of neutral-site games in to win the College Football Playoff.

2016: Clemson won at Auburn and FSU, beat Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game and beat Ohio State and Alabama in the College Football Playoff.

2015: Alabama beat Wisconsin in Arlington, Texas, won at Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn. The Tide beat Florida in the SEC Championship Game and then Michigan State and Clemson in the playoff.

Bottom line

"Auburn’s never boring, and under Malzahn, the Tigers are usually awesome. I don’t see why either of those things would change this fall."

We can’t argue about “never boring.” Connelly says Auburn could be 9-0 entering its final three-game stretch that includes a trip to Georgia, home game vs. Liberty and trip to Tuscaloosa.

I don’t think any Auburn fan would argue with a set up like that. Getting to 9-0 won’t be easy, but it’s doable. Connelly believes Auburn will be no worse than 9-3 this season. “This is going to be … a pretty Auburn season, in other words,” he says.

Auburn football is no stranger to pretty seasons. That happened in 1993, 2004, 2010 and 2013. That’s four times in 21 seasons or roughly once every five seasons. Do the math and we don’t need to spell it out for you.