Auburn football: Why Tigers will beat LSU on Saturday

The No. 7 Auburn football team plays a huge game to start the SEC season on Saturday when No. 12 LSU visits Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Even though it’s just Week 3 of the season, the winner gets the inside track in the SEC West.

Auburn opened as 10-point favorites and that has wavered between 9.5 points and 10.5 points with oddsmakers.

We wrote earlier this week that the first instinct is to think that feels a little high, but after giving it more thought, 10 points felt about right. After further reflection and looking at this matchup, we’re more confident in Auburn not just winning the game Saturday, but winning it with a little cushion.

Here are the reasons why:

1. Auburn has more weapons on offense

Jarrett Stidham, JaTarvious Whitlow, Kam Martin, Ryan Davis, Darius Slayton, Anthony Schwartz, Shaun Shivers, Sal Cannella, Nate Craig-Myers … the list goes on. Multiple players are capable of stepping up and making big plays and they will Saturday afternoon.

2. The defensive front four

Those guys have been devastating through the first two weeks of the season. Derrick Brown (Ed Orgeron says he reminds him of Reggie White!), Dontatvius Russell, Marlon Davidson, Nick Coe. It’s a loaded group and it doesn’t stop there. The Tigers are deep and defensive line coach Rodney Garner will work to keep them fresh in the heat Saturday.

3. Secondary strategy

The Auburn defensive backs are going to press and play the LSU receivers man to man. Washington beat the Tigers a handful of times with back-shoulder throws for receptions or drawing pass interference calls. But Jake Browning is a four-year starter with a ton of throws under his belt. Joe Burrow is not Browning. At least not yet. Can he make the same throws into tight windows with consistency? My bet is on the Auburn DBs.

4. Jarrett Stidham

The Auburn quarterback is healthy, looks calm in the pocket and is making good decisions. He’s throwing darts. He’s also shown that he learns from mistakes. He went 9 for 26 against LSU last season and was non-existent in the second half. Stidham remembers and won’t let that happen again.

5. Jordan-Hare Stadium

The home opener last week against Alabama State was fun for Auburn football fans. But LSU will bring out a different intensity Saturday. It will be loud. Very loud. Burrow’s first SEC test, on the road, against a top-10 team? Advantage, Auburn.

6. Speaking of Burrow

The quarterback who served as the Ohio State backup for two seasons before transferring to LSU owns two career starts — the last two weeks against Miami and Southeastern Louisiana. So let’s cut him some slack. He’s 21 for 44 for 291 yards, two TDs and no interceptions. One area of concern for LSU is third downs, where Burrow is 3-for-13 passing this season. He has picked up some first downs with his legs on third down, but has been stopped short, too. He’ll need to make plays on third down for LSU to beat Auburn. We have to see him do that first.

7. LSU on offense

Yes, Nick Brossette ran for 125 yards against Miami and 137 last week. He’s a very good back and Auburn will have to account for him at all times. But LSU totaled 296 yards in Week 1 and 335 last week. That puts LSU at 110th in the country at 315.5 yards per game. Auburn’s defense is allowing 301.5 yards per game. That bodes well for the hometown Tigers.

8. Big plays in waiting

Auburn didn’t put together many big plays against Washington. The Tigers chipped away and took what the Huskies gave them. That effort still amounted to 428 yards of offense. Last week, albeit against a way overmatched Alabama State team, we started to see a little of what the Auburn offense is capable of doing. Auburn only threw 14 passes and averaged 7.8 yards per play. Chip Lindsey has been ultra-conservative in his play-calling through two games, most likely by design. Minus the long TD pass to Schwartz last week, the Tigers have been content moving the chains one play at a time. Look for them to take their shots — and hit on their share Saturday.

9. Remember last year?

There’s no way that the Auburn football team lets the same thing happen. The Tigers led by 20, crawled into a hole and lost, 27-23. Here’s what Gus Malzahn said about it this week:

"That was an extremely tough loss, and the toughest loss of the year last year — probably one of the toughest since I’ve been here. The majority of our players are back and went through it and understand it. There’s not going to be a lot of motivation and Rah! Rah! stuff as far as last year. This is a new year and we are playing at home; our guys are extremely motivated right now. Looking back, that was kind of the turning point of our whole season last year going through that extremely low time."

We expect that Stidham learned his lesson. Malzahn learned his lesson. Lindsey learned his lesson. Everyone who’s back learned their lesson.