The Auburn football game against LSU on Saturday is one of the biggest games of the weekend.
It might be the biggest. No. 4 Ohio State and No. 15 TCU meet in Arlington, Texas, in one of three Week 3 matchups involving teams ranked in the AP Top 25.
It’s always fun to watch the ebb and flow of predictions surrounding teams. That’s especially true early in the season.
The Auburn-LSU game is a big one. LSU rallied from 20-down last season to win, 27-23. In 2016, LSU had a touchdown taken off the board when officials ruled the game’s final play didn’t get off in time. Les Miles was fired shortly after that mess.
In 2015, LSU won, 45-21. In 2014, it was Auburn, 41-7.
In other words, predicting the Auburn-LSU game is not an exact science. Far from it. But it’s often very close or very lopsided.
You would think that with both teams off to 2-0 starts, both with wins against top-10 teams on neutral fields and entering the matchup ranked No. 7 (Auburn) and No. 12 (LSU), respectively, predictions would be split down the middle. Or close to it. (Check out the Fly War Eagle staff picks here)
But that’s far from the case. Very far.
Saturday morning update:
The College Gameday crew is going with Auburn over LSU (except for Roman Reigns, so …)
They're allllllllllllllll on the Tigers. pic.twitter.com/YfEqfiXVFY
— Josh Vitale (@JoshVitale) September 15, 2018
For starters, we’re going to use the ESPN panel of 16 college football writers as an example.
In Week 1, they favored Washington over Auburn by a 10-6 margin.
In Week 1, they favored Miami over LSU by a 13-3 margin.
This week, it’s 17-0 (Dan Murphy has since been added) in favor of Auburn. The average score is 24.3 to 15.6. No one projects a blowout — the closest margin is 4 points, the widest 14. Even three people selected TCU over Ohio State.
It’s rare to find a consensus like that. It’s also scary.
But let’s not rely just on ESPN. Look around the country at what people are saying and writing:
USA Today: The six-person panel that was split on Auburn-Washington is all in with Auburn on this one. Six for Auburn, none for LSU.
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Bender says Auburn won’t cover the 9.5 points, but his call is 31-23. “Auburn is just different at Jordan-Hare Stadium,” he writes. You’re so right, Bill.
Tom Fornelli, CBS Sports: Fornelli is not impressed with either team’s offense. Edge to Auburn, 24-17.
Joe Tansey, Bleacher Report: Tansey thinks Auburn covers the 9.5 points, 24-13. “Auburn’s victory will be yet another resume booster, and it will solidify it as a playoff contender, but all of that won’t matter if it can’t beat Alabama in November,” Tansey writes.
Ralph Russo, Associated Press: Russo expects a tight one. His call: Auburn, 15-9.
It’s pretty amazing that the picks are this one-sided, isn’t it?
We had to go all the way to Louisiana to find someone picking the Bayou Bengals.
The Advocate’s three writers (Sheldon Mickles, Scott Rabalais, Brooks Kubena) made their predictions and Kubena is going with LSU in a tight one. Fair enough.