The No. 8 Auburn football team should not lose Saturday in Starkville against unranked Mississippi State.
Why, you might be wondering? Here’s why:
- Auburn is ranked No. 8 in the country, beat the current No. 10 team (Washington) and lost by a point to the current No. 5 team (LSU) that it should have beaten.
- Mississippi State has lost consecutive SEC games to fall to 3-2. Kentucky beat the Bulldogs in Lexington and Florida beat them in Starkville last week with MSU’s former head coach, Dan Mullen, on the other sideline.
- Because Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead is a first-year FBS head coach. In the SEC. The SEC West, no less. He should not beat the No. 8 team in the country at home, on the road or at a neutral site.
- And oh yeah, Auburn whipped Mississippi State, 49-10, last season at Jordan-Hare. There’s no way possible that a 3-2 Bulldog team has closed that 39-point gap since Sept. 30 of last year.
Right?
I mean, all those reasons make sense. I think most level-headed Auburn football fans (you’re still out there, aren’t you?) would agree with those reasons. Auburn should win Saturday in Starkville. But Auburn should have beaten LSU. And it didn’t.
The Tigers should have scored 50-plus against Arkansas. But it didn’t.
Auburn should have put Southern Miss away by halftime or early in the second half. But it didn’t.
As long as those things continue occurring, there are going to be doubts about this Gus Malzahn team.
Auburn returns seven starters on defense and four on offense from the game in Starkville last season. Mississippi started five of the same players on offense in its loss to Florida last week and four on defense.
- Last season, 9 of Mississippi State’s 14 possessions totaled 17 yards or less. Six Auburn possessions went for at least 47 yards and each of them ended with touchdowns.
- Auburn converted 6 of 12 third-down plays.
- Auburn committed one penalty for a loss of 15 yards. One penalty.
- Auburn was 4 for 4 in the red zone.
- Jarrett Stidham completed 13-of-16 passes.
- Nick Fitzgerald completed 13-of-33 passes.
The Bulldogs return four starters on the offensive line. The Tigers have one (Mike Horton).
Auburn doesn’t have Kerryon Johnson.
Are those big enough factors for State to close the gap Saturday? Or big enough for Auburn to close the gap by falling?
We’ll see what Malzahn and Chip Lindsey pull out of the hat Saturday.
The success (or failure) of the rest of the season could depend on it.