The No. 8 Auburn football team has a lot at stake Saturday when it plays unranked Mississippi State.
First, it’s the first road game for the Tigers, who are 4-1 this season.
Second, it’s a conference game. Auburn is 1-1 in the SEC this season.
And it’s yet another opportunity to shake out of this three-game run of bad offense. In Game 1 against then-No. 7 Washington, the Auburn offense totaled 420 yards. That felt like a pretty good game against a defense that is ranked 10th nationally in yards allowed per game (281.0) and first in scoring defense (11.6 points per game).
Then against FCS Alabama State, Auburn did anything it wanted: 63 points, 567 yards (429 on the ground). Then trouble started.
Auburn looked cold, then hot, then cold again in its 22-21 loss to LSU in which is totaled 328 yards. Then special teams and the defense dominated in a 34-3 win against Arkansas and the offense managed just 225 yards (and didn’t go over the 200-yard mark until late in the fourth quarter). Last week, Auburn had 348 yards against Southern Miss.
So there will be no bold predictions of Auburn running wild and slinging the ball all over the field Saturday night in Starkville. No, we’re done doing that until proven otherwise.
So onto this week’s three bold predictions:
1. Auburn will run wide
Defensive tackles Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons are lane cloggers, run stuffers, just plain disruptive big guys on the Mississippi State defensive line. With the way Auburn’s interior linemen have blocked this season, it won’t be wise to run at them. Auburn has had little success doing that against inferior opponents this season. But yet, it is a necessity, whether or not yards are gained or not.
Why?
Because Auburn has to set up the runs to the outside. That’s where yards can be gained. Look for at least 3-5 jet sweeps with Anthony Schwartz. Look for Shaun Shivers to get a few opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised if Asa Martin got a few looks, too. All it takes is for Schwartz to break one long run to make a defense freeze every time he goes in motion. But Auburn can’t run that play just once or twice and give up on it.
2. A non-offensive touchdown
This feels like the type of game that special teams and defense will be opportunistic. The Auburn special teams have scored on a kickoff return, punt block and nearly taken a couple punts the distance. If that unit can get something early for the Tigers, it could do wonders for an offense looking to have a little of the pressure taken off it.
If I had to make an educated guess, I’d say that Jordyn Peters gets his mitts on a punt and the Tigers punch one in that way. It’s doubtful Noah Igbinoghene gets many looks on kickoffs after his 96-yard score vs. Arkansas and Ryan Davis has been thisclose all season to taking back a punt. He’s seeing fewer and fewer opportunities.
Defensively, the defensive backs have been aggressive in recent weeks. Daniel Thomas is jumping routes, Igbinoghene has been blanketing receivers and Javaris Davis nearly took one the distance. Nick Fitzgerald is struggling throwing the ball for the Bulldogs.
3. Auburn will go for it on fourth down
What better way to ignite an offense than to go for it on fourth down and make it. Auburn has attempted that twice this season on fourth-and-short and both times plays were not even close and put ends to good drives that looked destined for the end zone.
At some point, the Auburn football team has to clear that hurdle. On the road, in a hostile environment with an opportunity to quiet the cowbells, Auburn will deliver Saturday night. After all, the coaches have had plenty of time to go over and over and over those two failed attempts.