Preview: Vanderbilt travels to Auburn for SEC basketball
By Jay Phillips
Auburn is scheduled to host Vanderbilt Jan. 8 at 8 p.m. for the Tigers’ first SEC home game of the basketball season.
Auburn (13-0) has not lost to Vanderbilt (8-5) since Jan. 4, 2017, but the Commodores are a new team with a new style of play under first year head coach Jerry Stackhouse.
Lucky for us, Vanderbilt super fan (@VU365 on twitter) gave Fly War Eagle his take on Auburn versus Vanderbilt and helped highlight some key matchups that could tilt the game in either direction.
Last weekend’s high scorers to face off:
Auburn point guard J’Von McCormick and Vanderbilt forward Aaron Nesmith led all players in the SEC in points scored last weekend. McCormick dropped 28 points on Mississippi State and Nesmith poured in 29 against SMU, but both will have trouble finding that much room in Auburn.
VU365: I expect both Nesmith and McCormick to be held under these totals in our matchup. I love the versatility that the Tigers have on defense. They will be able to throw multiple bodies at Nesmith while switching screens and limiting his open looks. I expect him to go under his 23.4 points per game average. For McCormick, look for him to go above his season average, but below his output against Miss State. Scotty Pippen Jr. and Saben Lee will be his primary defenders. If he starts heating up expect Vandy to put Maxwell Evans on him, who is our best on ball defender.
It’s hard to predict how many points McCormick will score. He went from scoring 18 points against Lehigh, to eight points against Lipscomb, to a career high 28 points against what Bruce Pearl called Mississippi State’s “monster men.”
Considering the level Auburn has been playing defense at, and the versatility that VU365 mentioned and the amount of players the Tigers can throw at Nesmith, it is easy to predict that Nesmith will be held under 29 points.
Nesmith is a 6’6″ 213-pound forward, according to vucommodores.com, which means anyone from Samir Doughty, to Isaac Okoro, to Allen Flanigan could be tasked with trying to shut him down.
Other matchups to watch:
Nesmith isn’t the only player on Vanderbilt who can hurt a defense. Saben Lee is averaging 15.8 points, 5.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game for the Commodores. Lee has been putting up those monster numbers while coming off the bench. Lee might start on the bench, but VU365 says he’s still the second best player on the team, and he has the ability to light up a defense.
That being said, VU365 thinks there’s another option that could get Auburn into some trouble.
VU365: Lee is averaging 15.8 off the bench, and is extremely athletic. He presents matchup problems to a lot of opponents. However, the best potential advantage Vandy has is Dylan Disu. He is a 6’9 freshman power forward with a great outside stroke. If he gets hot from three it could pose a problem for defenders, which I imagine will be primarily Danjel Purifoy and Anfernee McLemore. Maybe even some Okoro.
VU365 is right that Purifoy would probably start the night as Disu’s primary defender. If Vanderbilt’s stretch-four gets hot, then there’s a good chance that Okoro could finish the night guarding him.
Disu’s size and skills would have been a problem in year’s past, but Purifoy’s improved defense and the addition of Okoro has put Auburn in a much better place on defense.
The biggest mismatch might be in Auburn’s favor, which has been the case in a few games already this season.
VU365: Without question Austin Wiley is the biggest mismatch for Vandy. Vandy does not have the size, strength, or athleticism at the center position to compete with Wiley. I expect a big day out of him, and we may struggle to keep him off the glass. Clevon Brown, who leads Vandy in starts at the center position this season, is out with a knee injury. Vandy may turn to sophomore Ejike Obinna (6’10 243) to try to match a little bit of Wiley’s strength, size, and physicality. Obinna has potential, but is still very raw. That would be a heavy mismatch in favor of the Tigers.
Wiley has two double-doubles in Auburn’s last three games and is averaging 12 points, 9.9 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game over Auburn’s last 10 games.
Final thoughts:
VU365: This year’s Vandy squad is much better than last season under Bryce Drew. Stackhouse has his team built around giving great effort. I expect Vandy to play hard and potentially hang around for a while. That being said, there is a large talent gap in these two squads, and the Dores are outmatched. If I had to predict, I’d say:
#WarEagle – 83
#AnchorDown – 67
Vanderbilt has looked much better this season, but Auburn hasn’t skipped a beat. I could see the Commodore’s defense giving up quite a few points if McCormick and Purifoy stay hot:
Auburn – 91
Vanderbilt – 75