Auburn basketball: Do we have to play South Carolina?

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - MARCH 31: Austin Wiley #50 of the Auburn Tigers celebrates by cutting down the net after their 77-71 win over the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Midwest Regional at Sprint Center on March 31, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - MARCH 31: Austin Wiley #50 of the Auburn Tigers celebrates by cutting down the net after their 77-71 win over the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Midwest Regional at Sprint Center on March 31, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /
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Auburn basketball has suffered some tough, heartbreaking losses at the hands of South Carolina over the last few seasons, and the Tigers have also won some important games against South Carolina.

Jan. 22’s matchup against the Gamecocks will (once again) go in one of those two directions.

Auburn could beat South Carolina, snapping the Tigers’ two game losing streak and giving a struggling offense something to build off of heading into Jan. 25’s SEC-Big 12 challenge, where Auburn will play Iowa State.

Auburn could also lose to South Carolina, extending the losing streak to three games and making Auburn fans even more nervous.

South Carolina is hard to judge. The Gamecocks won by double-digits at Virginia and have lost to Stetson and Boston University at home. South Carolina has also beat Kentucky and lost to Flolrida since conference play started.

The version of South Carolina that Auburn has to play could determine how close the game is.

Against Virginia, the Gamecocks shot 55.1 percent from the field, 35.3 percent from three and turned the ball over 12 times. Against Kentucky, the Gamecocks shot 39.7 percent from the field, 36.8 percent from three and only turned the ball over nine times.

In their loss against Stetson, the Gamecocks shot 37.0 percent from the field, 21.1 percent from three, 50 percent from the free throw line and turned the ball over 15 times.

Boston University was a similar loss that saw the Gamecocks shoot 18.2 percent from three and turn the ball over 12 times.

Auburn’s ability to force turnovers and hold teams under their average points per game bodes well for the Tigers against South Carolina.

However, South Carolina is holding opponents to 66.1 points per game and forcing over 15 turnovers per game. Those two categories are how Auburn lost at Alabama and at Florida.

South Carolina has put up decent overall numbers in terms of defense, but it has also given up some big scoring performances. Despite losing Chris Silva, the Gamecocks have given up most of their high scoring performances to guards and wings in losses.

Northern Iowa, who beat South Carolina on a neutral court, had AJ Green go for 26 points. Quentin Grimes scored 24 for Houston, Christiaan James scored 18 for Stetson and Florida’s Andrew Nembhard had 21 points and 10 assists while his teammates Keyontae Johnson and Scottie Lewis combined for 34 points and 17 rebounds against the Gamecocks.

This could be a good opportunity for Auburn’s backcourt to get things going again.

Another area I’d like to see Auburn excell at against South Carolina is forcing turnovers and converting turnovers into fast break points.

South Carolina has had some massive turnover issues this season, including turning it over 29 times at home against Cleveland State and 21 times against Gardner Webb in addition to seven other games with 15 or more turnovers.

Auburn and South Carolina have split their last four meetings, with Auburn getting both of its wins by nine points and South Carolina winning once by nine points and once by three points. All four games have been between a ranked Auburn team and an unranked South Carolina team. Based on recent history, this could be a close game. A win would be big for Auburn and almost seems necessary.