Maybe it always had to be this way? Then again, everybody and their brother could have seen this coming... Anytime you replace an elite coach in a program's history with the faithful assistant from within, you get what you signed up for. With Steven Pearl taking over for his father Bruce Pearl at Auburn, he has done pretty much everything but answer the bell in his elevated role this season.
Entering the SEC Tournament, Auburn is an unspectacular 16-15 overall and only went 7-11 in SEC play. Somehow, some way, this is still good enough to be the last team into the field. Yes, ESPN's Joe Lunardi still miraculously believes in this underperforming Auburn team. It may have played such a challenging schedule, as illustrated by its 38 NET rating. However, the Tigers are playing with fire here.
So what we are going to do today is look at three other teams in and around the bubble in the same periphery as Auburn, and for the sake of Tigers fans everywhere, hope that they lose. There are only so many spots into the NCAA Tournament. Bids are going to get stolen in conference tournaments. The more that happen, the less likely a team around the cut line like Auburn will get lucky and make it.
Without further ado, let's turn our attention over to a couple of teams out of the ACC to start real fast.
3. Stanford Cardinal
Lunardi has the Stanford Cardinal as his third team out of March Madness. On the season, they are a respectable 20-11 overall and a quality 9-9 in ACC play. With a dismal NET rating of 59, that is almost certainly going to come back to haunt them if the Cardinal do not make a run in the ACC Tournament. They have to overcome a less-than-stellar schedule to make the field of 68. How could they do this?
No. 10 Stanford will take on No. 15 Pittsburgh in the first round of the ACC Tournament. In the event the Cardinals prove victorious over the Panthers, they would take on No. 7 North Carolina State in the second round. If they beat the Wolfpack, they would play No. 2 Virginia in the quarterfinals. Should Stanford get that far and Auburn stumbles out of the gate vs. No. 13 Mississippi State, that may do it.
Stanford needs to do markedly better in its conference tournament than Auburn to surpass them.
2. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech is in a similar spot as Stanford in the ACC. While the Hokies have a much better record than Auburn on the year at 19-12 overall and 8-10 in ACC play, they are only 53 in the NET. As is the case with the Cardinal, the Hokies must overcome a relatively weak resume to get past Auburn. In terms of Bracketology, Joe Lunardi only has them as the second team out, right ahead of Stanford.
As the No. 12 seed in the ACC Tournament, Virginia Tech might be able to make up more ground faster than Stanford can. If it wins its first-round game over No. 13 Wake Forest, that would set up a second-round game vs. No. 5 Clemson. An upset over those Tigers, and VT might have a chance. It may take a Clemson upset followed by an upset over No. 4 North Carolina in the quarters to get in.
Regardless, Auburn should view Virginia Tech as a viable threat as an underseeded team in the ACC.
1. Indiana Hoosiers
The Big Ten equivalent of Auburn this year has to be the Indiana Hoosiers. Darian DeVries' team has played a brutal conference schedule, but outside of a flukey home upset of arch rival Purdue, they do not really have much to show for it... On the year, Indiana is 18-13 overall and 9-11 in Big Ten play with a NET rating of 37. Lunardi has the Hoosiers as his first team out of the tournament in Bracketology.
With Indiana starting out the Big Ten Tournament as a No. 10 seed, the Hoosiers need to do as good, if not better than Auburn does in the SEC to overtake them. Indiana will play the winner of No. 15 Northwestern vs. No. 18 Penn State in its second-round game. After that, it would have to take on No. 7 Purdue in the third round. A win over them would get Indiana to the quarterfinals vs. No. 2 Nebraska.
Because the Big Ten Tournament has one more round, this could play in Indiana's favor, potentially...