Auburn opened up as a sizable -9.5 home favorite over Vanderbilt for this coming Saturday. It's very confusing why oddsmakers would project the Tigers to be such massive favorites over the Commodores after what transpired in Week 3.
Auburn, of course, was run over by Florida running back Jadan Baugh en route to a 44-39 loss under the lights at Jordan-Hare Stadium. While the Tigers showed plenty of fight against the Gators, the defensive woes were crippling.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt also showed fight and actually completed the comeback against NC State in Nashville. Jared Curtis was inconsistent in his first start, but he pulled through and amassed 277 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and three passing touchdowns. Of course, it was the defense that ultimately sealed the deal with a shocking fumble recovery in the end zone during the final seconds.
With as much momentum as the Commodores are carrying into Week 4, laying -9.5 is a wild ask of the Tigers.
Even if Auburn matches up well against Vanderbilt and is a deserving favorite.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
Auburn's defense matches up well with Vanderbilt
Curtis was the Commodores' rushing leader in Week 3 against a Wolfpack defense that had struggled against Virginia in Week 0. Vanderbilt's running backs had just 12 carries in total against NC State.
Curtis isn't going to march onto Pat Dye Field and dice up the Tigers' defense himself. Aaron Philo was able to amass over 200 passing yards because Baugh's production out of the backfield was right there with the passing game.
Without a running game to help him much, Curtis could find life in the SEC rough in the first conference matchup of his career on the road.
Auburn is a deserving favorite. Just not by two scores.
Byrum Brown could take advantage of Vanderbilt's secondary
Against FBS opponents, Vanderbilt has shown a vulnerability in the pass and the run. NC State quarterback CJ Bailey had over 300 all-purpose yards and three passing touchdowns. Delaware running back Jo'Nathan Silver went for 109 yards on 16 carries.
The Commodores are ripe for Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown to take advantage of with his dual-threat abilities. Brown has slowly started to flash his dominant scrambling abilities. Against Vanderbilt, he could finally have his first 100-yard rushing game. Brown had six such games last year in 2025 at USF.
Perhaps Jeremiah Cobb and the rest of Auburn's running back room could finally get going. The Southern Miss game is the only major performance they've had.
The Commodores won't be a doormat, but there's a major bounce-back opportunity for the Tigers to get back into the win column before hitting the road in Week 5.
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