Auburn football opens Year 3 of the Hugh Freeze era on Friday night as the Tigers take on Baylor in Waco, Texas. The Tigers are trying to rebound from a disappointing 5-7 season in 2024. A change has been made at quarterback as Payton Thorne departed and Jackson Arnold arrived from Oklahoma.
The talent is there for Freeze and his staff to get Auburn turned around in 2025, especially at wide receiver, where Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons return with transfers Eric Singleton Jr. and Horatio Fields arriving to provide even more threats.
Odds provided by FanDuel:
Line: Auburn -2.5
Money Line: Auburn -105/Baylor -115
Over/Under: 57.5
Here are our staff's predictions for how the battle between the Tigers and Bears plays out:
Andrew Hughes
Auburn doesn't have as many returning starters as Baylor, but they do have an overall talent advantage. With the game being in Waco, though, these factors all somewhat cancel out. The Tigers have many playable bodies in their backfield, and Jackson Arnold has no shortage of weapons in the passing game. If he, Hugh Freeze, Derrick Nix, and Kent Austin can navigate Dave Aranda's "creeper" blitzes and methodically move the chains, Auburn should be able to score enough to hold off a Baylor attack that may score more points every other week of the season than against DJ Durkin's unit on Friday night.
Auburn 24, Baylor 20
Pankti Parmar
Dave Aranda's simulated pressure zones will demand nothing less than Auburn QB Jackson Arnold's A-Game, and whether he has left his turnover-prone ways behind. That said, the Tigers' formidable-looking defense will make it equally challenging for the Bears' QB Swayer Robinson to score a good yardage, even though he was ranked as one of the breakout players in 2024.
Additionally, Auburn's wide receiver room, the Freeze Four, will be backing Arnold decently enough to get at least a couple of touchdowns. Considered one of the top-three units in the country, with star players like Cam Coleman and Eric Singelton Jr., will have an advantage over the Bears' secondary that had major issues last season.
Robinson might catch the Tigers' secondary napping early, but the Tigers are expected to score against the handful of deep shots against the Bears' struggling secondary in the second half, ultimately giving them the minor edge at the end of the game.
Auburn 31, Baylor 29
Brian Stultz
Let's get the obvious out of the way: this game is one of the most critical in Hugh Freeze's career. A win against Baylor will put all the offseason nonsense to rest, while a loss would hype it up even more.
The game falls on Jackson Arnold to get the job done at quarterback. The Tigers have had mediocre quarterback play during the past several seasons, and because of that, have lacked success in close games. This matchup will come down to the final minutes, so keeping his poise and not turning the ball over will be crucial.
Auburn's defense should be good enough to slow Baylor's offense, giving Arnold and company a chance to win it. I think the Tigers get the job done.
Auburn 24, Baylor 20
Mary Kate Hughes
I think we see Auburn's defense show out. There are a lot of guys ready to go on the defense and I think they're ready to show what they are made of in a real-game situation. Freeze said Jackson Arnold is sometimes leaving the pocket too early, so I bet we see more of Arnold on the run than we think. Hopefully the wide receivers make some big plays and we see a strong showing from Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb.
Auburn 24, Baylor 21