It'll be easy to overreact to how great Ashton Daniels looks tonight as he makes his debut for FSU. Daniels will be playing New Mexico State at Doak Campbell Stadium. The 'Noles will be favored by more than four scores on most sportsbooks and prediction markets.
The Aggies ceded more than 400 yards of offense and 30 points per game last season. While New Mexico State defensive coordinator Joe Morris's 3-3-5 scheme produced the No. 14-ranked defense in turnovers during the 2025 season, and there was a concerted effort to address the Matador defensive woes from a year ago in recruiting, Florida State has a different caliber of athlete. While Mike Norvell and Tony White have their play-calling flaws against ACC competition, they're not inept enough to squander the massive talent discrepancy.
Granted, Daniels' game feeds into the Aggies' poaching strengths. Daniels owns a 3.1% turnover-worthy play rate over his career, and he has 22 interceptions to 24 touchdowns. He's also fumbled the ball 16 times in four years, and he was only the full-fledged starter for two of those campaigns.
Still, Daniels has too much talent around him, relative to New Mexico State, to allow for what'd be a historic upset. Daniels is about to flash intriguing dual-threat abilities and convince a desperate Seminoles fanbase that needs a savior that this may be the year the team snaps out of its ongoing two-year malaise after the infamous 2023/2024 CFP snub.
There won't be enough evidence to come to that conclusion against the caliber of opponent Week 0 presents. That won't stop the belief that Daniels could lead Florida State to victory against SMU next week and Alabama in Week 3.
Daniels' 2025 Iron Bowl performance, which included 367 total yards in a gutsy but inefficient outing during the 27-24 loss, may already have the 'Noles believing in a strong showing against the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in a few weeks.
Auburn fans cannot bite on a big day from Ashton Daniels
The last thing Tiger fans need today is to feel an ounce of FOMO if Daniels has a strong showing. Or fall for any New Mexico State "gotchas." While he would've been a great backup for Byrum Brown in Alex Golesh and Joel Gordon's offense, Daniels' gaudy price tag meant that was never a realistic scenario.
Daniels was always meant to be a Jackson Arnold hedge on the Plains, and he served in his role dutifully after Auburn fired Hugh Freeze. He even almost got DJ Durkin the head coaching job during the final month of the 2025 season.
Daniels has since gotten what he needed: a starting job at a Power 4 program. The hope is that Golesh is giving the Tigers what they need, though the jury is out for at least another week.
Daniels will probably be a star tonight. Auburn may or may not start the Golesh era off the right way next weekend against Baylor in Atlanta.
Patience and context matter here. The hope is that Daniels plays well and the Tigers prove they are fine without him. We'll see if reality is an optimist like that.
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