Hugh Freeze has a clear problem on offense that he can’t seem to fix at Auburn

At risk of overgeneralization, Auburn fans are done with the Hugh Freeze experience. He is 15-18 over his two-plus seasons on The Plains with just six wins in SEC play. However, with Penn State, Florida, and LSU all searching for head coaches, it may not be the best offseason to hop on the coaching carousel. 

If Freeze is going to stay, either by winning out and saving his job with an 8-4 finish, or because Auburn would prefer to wait for the next coaching cycle when it can likely be the most premier job on the market, there’s one area that he desperately needs to fix.

No, it’s not the quarterback position, though that may be the root of the issue. It’s the red zone offense, where Auburn ranks 126th in touchdown percentage this season. 

Auburn’s red zone offense could be Hugh Freeze’s undoing

As Justin Hokanson of AuburnOn3 points out, the red zone touchdown percentage was a problem last season as well. Freeze went into the transfer portal to replace Payton Thorne with Jackson Arnold, but instead of a solution, he was a new problem, and was finally benched on Saturday in the Tigers' 33-24 win over Arkansas. 

Though Arnold was unquestionably one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC this season, it is still a bit surprising that Auburn struggled so mightily in the red zone. Yes, it helps to have a precise passer when the field is condensed and you no longer have the threat of verticality to create space for your receiver, and Arnold is not that. But what Arnold was and is, if he returns to the field at any point this season, is a physical runner, and that’s typically enough to have a passable red zone offense. 

The best red zone offenses by touchdown percentage are primarily some of the best rushing teams in the country, because when there is less space to throw the ball, it’s often a better option to keep it on the ground. This season, Memphis ranks No. 1 in touchdown percentage, while Arkansas and Navy are tied at No. 2. By rushing success rate, those are the 11th, 6th, and 1st ranked offenses in the country, respectively. 

Auburn, despite all its struggles to move the ball, ranks No. 28 in rushing success rate and 24th in EPA/carry. Memphis, Navy, and Arkansas are the No. 1, 2, and 3 teams by the latter metric. 

So, why does Freeze’s offense struggle so much in the red zone? Much of it still comes back to having the wrong quarterback. 

While Arnold is an efficient runner, only one quarterback in the FBS has been sacked more than his 27 times, and though he has seven rushing touchdowns, the Tigers average 2.7 yards per carry on 53 attempts inside the 20-yard line. Throwing the ball, Auburn is 11-for-25, for 85 yards with three touchdowns to one interception. 

Arnold wasn’t the answer, and if Freeze does stay in Auburn, the program needs to use the money it saves by keeping him around to pluck the best quarterback out of the transfer portal, and hope it starts to get better.

The issue, is that with Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels in the game to replace Arnold on Saturday, Auburn made four trips to the red zone in the second half, and came away with four field goals. Daniels isn't the caliber of QB that Auburn needs to compete for SEC Titles, but if the red zone woes persist with a third different quarterback, from Thorne to Arnold to Daniels, then it could worth pointing the finger at the offensive-minded head coach.