Auburn has been a consistent -7.5 favorite at the spread against Baylor all offseason. Week 1 has arrived, and as of the early morning on Saturday, September 5, it remains the same. The only odds change for the Aflac Kickoff Game has been the over/under points total, which moved down a point to 58.5 for the two teams combined.
On predictive markets, there's been a similarly consistent trend. There was an influx of money that went the Bears' way on August 24 for the ML, but those markets have stabilized in the Tigers' favor as well.
It's unclear what caused that spike. It happened around noon but stabilized by the evening. Perhaps it was just a large, singular bet on Baylor.
Overall, there isn't a ton of wagering action on this game compared to, say, the defending champion, Indiana, and an overmatched North Texas.
Both squads bring a ton of unknowns into Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That could explain it.
Baylor is promising change, but can the Bears deliver?
Dave Aranda has talked a big game all offseason about his program turning things around this fall. In particular, Aranda has focused on culture improvement.
While before, the goal was to move out of toxicity and into positive territory, Aranda is flat-out saying his team has been having fun since the spring.
"I think one of the biggest differences of all the differences from maybe the past till now is that football's fun," said Aranda. "It's hot, and we've been out here for a minute, and the guys were having fun... where in the past you couldn't say that."
Bears fans have heard this type of sentiment before from Aranda, but never this cheery and optimistic. Perhaps the infusion of leaders like Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway and defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman from Kansas State will truly make a difference.
In the Big 12, Baylor could be one of the wildest cards in the bunch this season. The Bears would gain respect by proving Aranda's words are true in Week 1 against a program that's getting more respect from oddsmakers and bettors.
Maybe Aranda talking like there will be accountability on defense has some thinking this could be a low-scoring affair. Even so, the over/under total has moved only marginally. Not too many must believe that.
The public has betting confidence in Auburn
Many coaches win the offseason, but few have ever done so in the fashion Alex Golesh has on the Plains.
Golesh is proving to be the anti-Hugh Freeze and anti-Bryan Harsin, putting his own ego on the back burner and putting the players at the forefront. Driving the program forward seems to be a genuine goal for Golesh, not just nabbing recruiting wins and claiming the change is there.
We know the offensive line could be a concern all season, but USF quarterback transfer Byrum Brown is bringing continuity with play-caller Joel Gordon from Tampa. He's bringing a handful of receivers, a tight end, and a running back, too. He's bringing experience running an up-tempo offense that can mitigate the damage of poor protection somewhat.
The rest comes down to the defense. If there's a step back collectively and numerous lapses against Lagway, with penalties or blown coverage, victory becomes tough in Week 1. DJ Durkin has had an incredible defense for two years, though, and there's depth at all the key positions up front, if also a lack of bona fide NFL draft picks like there was in 2025.
At 3:30 pm ET/2:30 pm CT, all the speculation goes away, and tangible knowledge of what these products look like this season takes over.
We'll see if the Golesh era kicks off in the way the betting public believes it will.
If so, get ready to roll Toomer's Corner, those of you not in Atlanta and in the Loveliest Village for the big game.
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