ESPN gives Auburn football 23.8 percent chance to make a bowl game

Over halfway through the 2022 season, the Auburn football program is certainly struggling. To this point, the Tigers have won three matchups and lost four, with only one conference victory over Missouri and losses to LSU, Georgia, and Ole Miss.

Before the season even began, most folks believed that the surest route to a bowl game for the Tigers would involve the team heading into Athens 5-0, winning out during the five game homestand that began the season. Auburn won three of those five games, and faces an SEC gauntlet that could ultimately keep the Tigers out of a post-season bowl game.

According to ESPN’s football power index, Auburn football has just a 23.8 percent chance to get six wins and qualify for a bowl game. So, who is left on the Tigers’ schedule, and which games could potentially be won? The good news is that three of the remaining five games will be played in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Auburn’s next opponent after the bye week will be Arkansas, and the Razorbacks will travel to the Plains to kick off at 11:00 a.m. According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the Tigers have a 55.4 percent chance to win their second SEC win of the season over the Razorbacks. While Arkansas may have a powerful offense under quarterback K.J. Jefferson, they also have the #98 defense, so this may be one that Auburn can pull off.

The following matchup might mean trouble for the Tigers as they head on the road to take on Mississippi State with a 20.3 percent chance of winning the game. QB Will Rogers has already thrown over 2000 yards this season and scored 23 touchdowns, so Auburn will need a big offensive push to win in Starkville.

The Tigers return home in mid-November for the Texas A&M game, which ESPN gives them a 45.1 percent chance of winning. The Aggies’ current record is 3-3, and their offense has struggled mightily under Haynes King. If the Tigers perform well, the atmosphere in JHS may be able to put them over the top.

The final game that Auburn football has a true to chance to win comes right before the Alabama game (4 percent chance to win). The so-called cupcake game against Western Kentucky may end up being more of a challenge than expected as the Hilltoppers are currently averaging 40 points per game. The Tigers are expected to win, but only at 58.7 percent.

Although there are several winnable games left on the schedule, it’s hard to look at three of those five matchups and feel confident that Auburn will play in bowl game this year. Here’s hoping that the Tigers win out over Arkansas and pull up a few upsets in November.