Auburn Tigers football coach Hugh Freeze doesn't have forever to turn the ship around on the Plains. After an 11-14 start leading the program, everyone and their mother knows this season is likely do or die for the Oxford, Mississippi native if AU doesn't own a winning record.
On SI's Terrance Biggs pegged Week 4 against Oklahoma as the potential bellwether for whether or not Freeze will make it to 2026.
"...no Auburn coach in 50 years has had two-losing seasons and survived the third. Freeze has, in large part because of the expectations to rebuild a program that had been left threadbare. On paper, he’s done that," Biggs wrote.
"Now, Freeze must win many more games to keep his job. Forget the concept of a raise or incentives; winning in 2025 becomes the mandate. In order to keep Freeze from typing an end date of his tenure, the time is now. However, how many games will save his job?
"On September 20th, the team heads out to Norman to play the Sooners. The first conference game of the year carries a weight that Auburn can either stand on to propel the team forward with a win or deal with a loss that crushes the aspirations of a coach that will ultimately lose his job."
Freeze's Tigers cannot start the season off on the wrong foot against Baylor. Not only would losing to Walker White's team sting after he explained his transfer as seeking a program that actually has a plan for QBs, but it'd make the Sooners matchup as dramatic of a must-win as it's being painted as.
2-2 isn't as damning in a 12-team College Football Playoff field as it was in a four-team field. Freeze has earned enough goodwill on the recruiting trail and has finished seasons strongly both times with the Tigers to earn trust that 2-2 isn't the end of the world.
Keeping Freeze into 2026 is reportedly on the table despite the results this fall. There's no guarantee AU would continue to demand winning as a prerequisite to stay employed. The damage Bryan Harsin did to the program is still being felt.
But the media will circle like sharks looking for a high-profile replacement. Colorado's unwillingness to show Deion Sanders every dollar he's looking for could eventually force him back into conversations for the head coaching job, even if he's the last person who'd ever be hired. Charles Kelly's name can pop back up if his debut season as Jacksonville State's head coach goes well.
Freeze not winning will eventually force Tiger fans to dream about someone who will.
He may not have time to prove he can be the guy. Week 4 may be an inflection point in his coaching tenure.