Hugh Freeze's Auburn Tigers may have fewer redeeming qualities than previously realized as a team, despite having highly regarded players up and down the depth chart on both sides of the ball. The Auburn Observer's Justin Ferguson, far from a pessimist on the program, delivered the deflating message in his latest mailbag.
As Ferguson notes, AU's offense is a bottom-third offense that could've put up a normal number of points per game in college football and still win -- and at the same time, the defense is having its counting stats look better against less aggressive and conservative opposing offenses that are running out the clock in games already decided.
"This takes some logic-bending, but walk with me here: If Auburn scored just 28 points in each of its losses under Freeze, it would have had enough to turn 11 of those into wins and forced overtime in two others. That’s the difference between a coach who is 14-17 right now and one who could be 25-6 or better," Ferguson wrote.
"Granted, situation football matters, and opponents would probably be more aggressive against Auburn if it knew it wouldn’t just win with less than 28. The Tigers’ defense has played against a decent bit of 'run out the clock' in the second half.
"But this thought experiment just goes to show you that an average scoring offense against power-conference competition could have Auburn in a much different situation than it is right now. And that ultimately goes back to Freeze."
That 38-24 Week 1 win over the Baylor Bears feels like a parallel universe; a one-game reprieve from a product that actually does look as close to being ready as Freeze says it is, but only before the head coach speaks at halftime.
Second-half collapses have since returned during SEC play. Those were a staple of Freeze's first two seasons, too.
DJ Durkin's defense can only hold things up for long. If those players aren't getting support offensively and getting morale boosts from touchdowns, or even field goals, since kicking has been a sore spot with Alex McPherson battling Crohn's Disease over the last year, things go awry in the second half.
Freeze needs to fix this. Immediately. Against the Missouri Tigers. Or he may be out of chances.