Iron Bowl preview, predictions for Auburn-Alabama in Week 14 during SEC Rivalry Week
It’s Iron Bowl week! The best rivalry in sports is returning for its 89th edition. This year’s version sees a hungry 5–6 Auburn team taking on a deflated 8–3 Alabama squad. Auburn is coming off their first ranked win since 2021 in a four-overtime thriller in Jordan-Hare against Texas A&M. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are licking their wounds after losing 24–3 to an unranked Oklahoma team, which is arguably their worst loss since Nick Saban lost to ULM in 2007.
Many meetings between the two teams have had national title or SEC Championship implications. However, that does not look to be the case this year.
Let’s look at how we got to this point.
Auburn’s season so far
Auburn started the year off with five straight home games, a stretch in which many thought the Tigers could escape 4–1 or, best case, 5–0. This thought would be derailed in a Week 2 loss to Cal that snowballed into a 2–3 record heading into the first of three straight road games. Auburn would go 1–2 on their road trip, with a win in Lexington over Kentucky leaving them with a record of 3–5.
Following a bye week, Auburn would host three more games in Jordan-Hare, beginning with Vandy. After a disappointing loss to the Commodores, the Tigers would rebound and secure their first winning streak of the season with wins over ULM and No. 15 Texas A&M.
That brings us to the current situation, where Auburn is playing at Alabama and trying to cement themselves into a second straight bowl appearance in as many seasons under Head Coach Hugh Freeze.
Alabama’s season so far
160 miles west in Tuscaloosa, first-year Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer has Alabama desperately trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. At 8–3, even a win over Auburn is unlikely to vault them in. They would need help from other SEC schools. ESPN gives them a 37.7% chance to make the playoffs.
Alabama started the year 4–0, highlighted by an important 41–34 win over Georgia. The Tide started that game up 28–0 but allowed Georgia to come all the way back and even take a late lead before ultimately finding a way to win. With a 4–0 September, Alabama fans were envisioning an undefeated matchup with Tennessee in their Third Saturday of October rivalry game. Vanderbilt had other plans. In Vanderbilt’s biggest program win, they would upset the Crimson Tide 40–35.
The next week would see Bama win a scary one at home vs. South Carolina 27–25. Alabama then traveled to Knoxville sitting at 5–1 to match up with 5–1 Tennessee. The Vols would come out on top, pushing the Tide to 5–2. Alabama would win their next three games convincingly, including a 42–13 blowout at LSU. This past week, though, Alabama faltered in a way that hasn’t been seen in the past 20 years: an ugly 24–3 loss vs. unranked Oklahoma. The Sooners’ defense picked off Bama QB Jalen Milroe three times.
What a win would mean for Auburn
Did you know Auburn has never lost to a non-Saban-coached Alabama team in Tuscaloosa? Hugh Freeze will look to continue that in an important game against the Tigers’ in-state rivals. A win would mark the first victory in Bryant-Denny Stadium for Auburn since Cam Newton led a 24-point comeback in 2010.
Auburn would be going bowling again, and, almost more importantly, gain a month of extra reps for young guys in bowl practices. The recruiting impact would be huge as well. Auburn is in a stage where proof of concept is extremely important toward finishing off their class. Hugh Freeze is recruiting at unheard-of levels for a team that’s struggling as much as Auburn is.
A win would go a long way in locking down all current commits as Early Signing Day approaches on December 4. Auburn still has a few big targets left on the board, most notably Na’eem Offord, Justus Terry, Ousmane Kromah, and Darrion Smith.
What a win would mean for Alabama
It would keep Bama fans’ opinions of DeBoer’s seat cooler.
I’m not suggesting that he’s on the hot seat, but many Alabama fans have never experienced a three-loss season before. It was always known that he had impossible shoes to fill with Nick Saban retiring, but he also inherited the most talented roster of all time. All DeBoer had to do was make the playoffs his first year; meaning lose a maximum of two games.
To be honest, he is lucky to have only lost three games, as the Georgia and South Carolina games could’ve gone the other way. A win would keep them in the playoff hunt, granted a doomsday scenario unfolds with the other SEC teams in contention. This would involve Tennessee losing to Vanderbilt, Texas losing to A&M, Georgia losing to Georgia Tech, and then again in the SEC Championship. Even with all of that, they still may not be in a position to get in.
Luckily for Alabama, they have put together a very good recruiting class, should they hold on to their top commits. A win would help lock down and reaffirm some commitments.
Predictions
If Auburn wins: Auburn 31 – Alabama 30
Auburn is down in the 4th, 30–24, and scores a touchdown to make it 14 unanswered points to take the lead and ultimately the game.
If Alabama wins: Alabama 34 – Auburn 17
Auburn is in it at halftime, trailing 20–17, but a second-half shutout leads to an Alabama triumph.
Gut feeling: I don’t trust this year’s version of Auburn. While I could see the Tigers win happening, I feel that the Alabama scenario is more likely. I’ll give the Tide the victory with 60% confidence.