The NFL has fully adapted to the age of AI, employing Boston-based Recentive Analytics to optimize the best live viewing windows for every game each season. The predictive modeling firm goes beyond the sport itself to find the best times to capitalize on drawing a maximum audience. So far, the results have been staggering for the NFL in the ratings department, with 18.7 million viewers on average per game. That's a record in the last 25 years, and in a media landscape with more competition than ever.
Recentive Analytics factors in the economy, local competitive events, politics, competitive events on TV, and things that don't have to do with the sport at all, founder Andy Tabrizi recently told me. That holistic approach has driven sterling results for the NFL.
On the topic of College Football -- Recentive Analytics has a partnership with the Big Ten and the University of Oklahoma, though, notably, not the SEC as a conference, among its collegiate portfolio -- Tabrizi answered questions on several topics regarding the sport's future, and how Recentive Analytics could utilize user data to best optimize CFB's ratings potential.
On running expanded CFP models through Velo...
"A lot of the applications are on our AI platform, Velo, and the college world is really helping them understand the implications of a lot of things that you've seen ... So if you think about going from, or to now 12, to, who knows, 16 or 20 or 24. Most people that think about the kind of media and revenue side of it are like, 'Oh, well, there's more playoff games, so there'll just be more viewers for the playoff games. Great. The viewership goes up.'"
"Obviously, that's true. But the kind of bigger implication, that's really important for them to understand as well, is if I'm going from, say, 12 to 20, then there are certain games in a regular season that will become more interesting, because you have games that were somewhat meaningless or not that competitive, that now have seeding implications or, 'Will somebody get in or not?'"
"But on the flip side, you have games that were less interesting, and so when they used our software, in particular, in the January window, they were going through all those meetings after the national championship game to very precisely and accurately forecast, like, 'Okay, here's what actually happened in the existing scenario. Here's the attendance and viewership for all these games.' And now simulate out what it would have been in a 16-, 20-, or 24-team scenario...
"They were able to see literally down to like the 100th of a percentage point. This game would have gone from here to here; this team's viewership would have gone from here to here, and here's the net impact. So instead of just saying, 'Hey, the postseason, more games, great, it creates more interest.' They can actually understand the notable picture and do it in a way similar to the NFL. It has an incredibly high degree of accuracy to it."
On NFL viewing CFB as television competition late in the season...
"Obviously, the forecasts are cognizant of it. I think the reality is the NFL is still the NFL. And if you look at the NFL at the same time as the NBA, at the same time as college football, and at the same time as whatever other properties are impacted more ... without a doubt. But the truth is, like, a football fan is still going to have to choose between one or the other. The NFL gets more viewers without the competition. So they're definitely cognizant. You see the first round of the college football playoff, right? Overlapping with NFL games on Saturday or at the end of the season."
"There's no doubt that those games have fewer viewers than if they were not competing with those CFP games. So it's a question of how you move the pieces around the chessboard to maximize overall audiences, and I think they're all cognizant of it, which is why there's not a ton of overlap. But, at some point, especially at the end of the season, there are only so many days and so many places you could put those games ... Alot of the work that we're starting to get into around, conference level stuff, but also from the non-conference matchups that are played earlier in the season as well, is how do you advance all of these things to maximize overall audience?"
"Because even take the NFL out of it, you think about early-season college football. Is it the best thing for a college football fan to have a great game being opposed by another great game? Like, you really want to set these things up in a way that you're not overlapping. Like, I think, to some extent, the dream scenario probably is 0 overlap. There are probably logistical and operational reasons why that wouldn't be the case, but I think they're cognizant of it. Fortunately, we were able to play a small piece in helping them quantify what would happen in different scenarios."
"So part of the experiment, let's say, of looking at different scenarios was that our model was actually saying, 'Okay, here would be the time and the day that you could actually set this up, abiding by rest and all that other stuff that you need. But here will be the windows that actually maximize audiences, obviously, for a bunch of different reasons.' The playoff will stay the same this year. But it's certainly running in that direction. I mean, I think there was an article today about the AFCA pushing for more games. Like, there are obvious reasons for it, but at the same time, it's not just like, 'Hey, if we're going to add more games, it's going to be better across the board,' without a lot of thought going into it."
On eliminating conference championship games...
"I think it depends on the totality, right? I think in a vacuum, removing the conference championship game is not a good move. Now at the same time, you've obviously seen kind of quirky things; the teams that made the conference championship game were actually punished for it in a way, from a seeding perspective. Some had the weekend off, who got the rest and weren't impacted."
"So is that equitable? Obviously not, but I think with most things, there's a middle ground that would make more sense. I think of the uproar that has happened as well. There are literally teams that are both getting rest and benefiting; a team that qualified, perhaps took some end-of-season games more seriously to get there than others did. And that's a deterrent for them. That part, I don't think, makes sense to people."
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On if unpopular 2025/2026 CFP field will spurn imminent changes beyond Notre Dame cutout...
"I think you've seen different pieces here over here that kind of show that the ranking system needs to change, that the format overall needs to change, that you're not actually getting the top 12 teams. I mean, you know, the irony of both Tulane and James Madison kind of making it there, every person in the world talking about how they're going to run off the field, and they both were run off the field. I don't think that's great for college football. That you kind of have those games where you have the first round and two of the games are already known to be potential duds."
"You know, at the same time, you go back a year before that, and basically, every game was an upset in the first couple rounds, right? Several lower seeds won in some cases, in a material way. To me, that just signals you don't have the right top 12 teams, or at least in the right order. If one upset happens, great, and obviously March Madness is where you see that, but football and basketball and different things.
"There's a lot going into changing the ranking system. How do you actually find the best football teams? And obviously, you know, Notre Dame being guaranteed a spot if the Irish finish in the top 12 is a step in the right direction. But at the same time, there's gonna be some other program, if not Notre Dame next year, that has a similar gripe, and it's a bit impossible to keep kind of chasing your tail that way."
On partnering with Group of Six conferences...
"Yeah, I also kind of look at it as, it's obviously our focus in a lot of places is on maximizing audiences, and obviously the biggest audiences are coming from the big conferences. At the same time, you can make the argument that on a relative basis, there's perhaps more opportunity for the (Group of Six conferences). So, while it's not going to be an initial focus, it's eventually going to become a bigger focus for us."
"The goal should be, 'How do you make the best schedule?', or 'How do you get the best TV audience?', or 'How do we create the best ranking system?' Obviously, there's plenty of stuff out there about certain conferences having different incentives and different things they're pushing for. Maybe it's a bit of a pipe dream of mine, but I think the only way to actually get to the system that is best for the fans, the teams, and the players is to look at it from a holistic standpoint, but I'm not sure that'll happen immediately, at least."
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