Hugh Freeze going home if not for a winning season is an almost established hypothesis this season. Unless Auburn AD John Cohen has an equally improbable vote of confidence in Freeze as Florida's Scott Stricklin had in Billy Napier in 2024, it is almost certain that he would be sent packing if he fails to meet the expectations.
The daunting schedule that the Tigers have lined up this season makes the situation even more concerning for Freeze. With SEC Giants like Georgia and Alabama on the road, the Tigers will desperately need to win all the close-call games they have this season to muster that winning record at least.
If their record topples to anywhere near five losses, Freeze might have to kiss the Plains goodbye. The reason is the following Iron Bowl game against Alabama, where the odds are currently on the Crimson Tide's side; in the case of which Freeze will be left with a 6-6 record.
Saturday Down South's Connor O'Gara predicts Vanderbilt to be the Tigers' fifth loss of the season, aka the dagger that sends Freeze packing.
"Auburn can’t get off the field on 3rd down. That turns into Pavia’s confidence growing and he senses that he’s got Freeze on the ropes yet again. Auburn forces overtime with some late-game heroics by Coleman, but a missed Auburn kick and a Pavia walk-off touchdown hands Freeze his most painful loss to date," O'Gara wrote.
Per the prediction, the Commodores will be one of the six SEC teams against whom the Tigers fall.
"In my projection, the hay is in the barn by the time Auburn falls to an 0-4 start to SEC play. The dagger is sent by Pavia and Co," O'Gara continued.
"He’s not surviving 6-6 with a 2-6 mark in SEC play. He can endure all the bad luck in the world and still not earn a Year 4 if that’s how 2025 plays out."
We'll see whether Pavia would be that dagger, or it would be someone else. Or whether Freeze encounters the situation at all.